why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Partly held up
Hicks: DoD aims to field thousands of autonomous systems within 24 months
“Replicator's goal has always been simple and straightforward, to field thousands of attributable autonomous systems in multiple domains within 18 to 24 months, and to prove ways to burn down risk and rapidly and safely overcome barriers to scaling.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hicks: China's military was built over decades specifically to overmatch the US
“Because the PRC has spent decades building a modern military designed primarily to do one thing, overmatch us.”
Assertion Supported
Hicks: DoD flexible acquisition pathways processed $35B, saving up to six years
“Over thirty five billion dollars have gone through these pathways since 2021 across nearly 200 programs. They've shaved up to six years off transition and delivery timelines for warfighter priorities.”
Prediction Partly held up
Hicks: DoD is on track to meet August 2025 Replicator target
“I'm confident we're doing everything on track to get there. We're gonna meet that goal.”
Opinion
Hicks: Chinese coercion drove commercial tech companies back to the Pentagon
“I don't think we are in a crisis phase, to use your Vietnam analogy, and I do think, as I said in my remarks, that the PRC did a lot of that work by comparison, and Types of both their military activities and the types of coercive strategies they use working w…”
Assertion Supported
Hicks: DoD R&D budget exceeds Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft combined
“It's more than what Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft combined spent on R&D last year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hicks: DoD completed initial Replicator planning in five months
“What we did in five months normally takes DOD two to three years.”
Assertion Supported
Hicks: U.S. forces faced 165 drone attacks before fatal 2024 strike
“First of all, that I think is about our 165th attack on us using those sorts of techniques, largely UAS, but a variety of techniques. This one hit. It took three U.S. Service members and wounded many more.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hicks: Continuing resolutions severely restrict DoD tech acquisition capabilities
“Without the budget, it's very, very hard for us. There are great limitations on what we can do under a continuing resolution. We have some rapid acquisition authorities. We are using everything we have, but they're just frankly limits to not having the governm…”
Insight
Hicks: The entire American commercial industrial base is the defense industrial base
“The American industrial base is the defense industrial base.”
Assertion Supported
Hicks: DoD allocated billions of dollars through alternative software acquisition pathway
“You know, we have to show that those pathways, software is one, for example, we've already put billions of dollars through that software acquisition pathway.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hicks: DoD 2024 R&D request of $145B triples Cold War spending
“In real dollars, DoD's twenty-twenty-four R&D budget request of a hundred and forty-five billion dollars is triple what it was during the Cold War.”
Insight
Hicks: Ukraine war proves modern military tech iteration is software-driven
“So software-driven Ukraine more than anywhere else has shown the pace, the rapid pace of iteration in terms of the development of the technologies and the capabilities. Again, a lot of it's software.”
Assertion Supported
Hicks: FY2024 DoD procurement request is second-highest peacetime request in 35 years
“Our procurement budget request for 24 is, is, you know, the highest in the peacetime, you know, era, second highest in the peacetime era in 35 years.”
Insight
Hicks: AI safety and military operational effectiveness are not trade-offs
“We, you know, safety is vital to effectiveness for us. These aren't trade-offs. They are one in the same,”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hicks: Task Force Lima is assessing hundreds of generative AI use cases
“So they are looking at hundreds of use cases to identify what are the right, what's the right framework for the department. This spring is when that information comes forward to the CDAO, and then to me, And the secretary thereafter.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hicks: U.S. holds a distinct advantage in scaling unit-level military innovation
“I think one piece that the United States has an advantage on is, is over other competitors is that when innovation happens down at the unit level, we know how to bring that up and scale it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hicks: U.S. intelligence advantage has paid off substantially in Ukraine
“The United States clearly has an advantage in intelligence that's paid off substantially and to the extent that we can help our partners with that, in this case, Ukraine that, you know, that's an area we know is a strength to build on.”
Insight
Hicks: U.S. military's bottom-up innovation model contrasts with authoritarian adversaries
“We have the most incredible military service members. They are individuals who are incented to bring forward their best. That is definitely a different model than authoritarian states.”
Prediction Held up
Hicks: Replicator system details will be submitted to Congress within days
“The system level information comes forward in the next several days, as I said in my remarks.”
Opinion
Hicks: Global geopolitical risks drove Silicon Valley's shift toward defense alignment
“I am. I think it is a marker for what's happened, I think, in broader world events. I think there's more ability to see how you as an individual innovator or investor can contribute to the you know, to the American experience, to American dynamism, dare I say …”
Assertion Supported
Hicks: 1960s defense buying reduced microchip prices from $1,000 to $25
“Think of NASA and the Pentagon buying so many silicon microchips in the 19 sixties to guide moon rockets and Minuteman missiles that the price per chip fell from a thousand dollars to 25 dollars in just a few years.”
Assertion Supported
Hicks: U.S. government funded up to two-thirds of American R&D pre-1980
“The early 19 fifties through the late 19 seventies, when government, and especially DOD, contributed between one half and two thirds of all American research and development dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Hicks: Private sector has funded 50% to 70% of U.S. R&D since 1980s
“But since the 19 eighties, the script has been flipped, with companies contributing 50 to 70% of America's R&D pie.”
Assertion Supported
Hicks: Defense tech saw over $100B across 2,000 deals since 2021
“Some 2000 deals investing over a hundred billion dollars since twenty-twenty-one per pitch book in the Wall Street Journal.”