why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
A massive market will emerge for entertainment and companionship AI models
“I think there's going to be a huge market for more of these companionship entertainment, just having fun type models that doesn't need to be like the highest IQ person you know.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: On-the-fly mini-apps will displace ad-heavy long-tail mobile apps
“Instead of having to find this long tail app that's running all these crazy ads, pop-ups all the time, and is hard to use and is not personalized to you can just make exactly what you want on the fly and tweak it”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: Merchant infrastructure for AI agents will equal consumer market
“The entire infrastructure and merchant facing side of it is probably going to change quite a bit. And I think that will be just as big as the consumer side of the market.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Other US states will not replicate Illinois' AI mental health therapy ban
“I don't expect we'll see the other states go in the direction of Illinois, partially because it's just so hard to regulate.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Interactive world models will spawn a major personal gaming market
“And then, but I think the second gaming example is more like kind of what you're alluding to, which is more personal gaming, which is like every person puts in an image or video or text prompt, and then is sort of creating their own mini game where they're wan…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Generative world models will supply unlimited reinforcement learning environments for AI agents
“There's so many companies now selling these RL environments for agents that they're manually creating. And something like a genie three could make that Much easier and sort of allow you to generate unlimited environments for these agents to wander through and …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Specialized vibe coding platforms will emerge for distinct user segments and demographics
“And so I think what we are hoping to see basically is Like specialized players emerge that offer the best product for a particular demographic of user or for a particular use case. And that will probably imply very different product experiences, product constr…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Justine Moore: AI will generate end-to-end consumer brands from design to app
“I think we'll see brands that are, like, logo, product photo, maybe even product itself designed by AI, vibe-coded slash vibe-designed website or mobile app, and then kind of drop ship to the end consumer.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: AI tools will manage full shopping journeys
“This is probably going to be happening more and more, From the research side of things all the way to making purchases probably agentically when prices are right”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: AI shopping agents will benefit aggregators over single-SKU brands
“Which I think is gonna be an interesting challenge in the age of AI, too, because you could argue that AI agents can direct Direct people to things if people start their purchase activities there, which could be an opportunity or a challenge for, like, the sin…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore predicts multiple standalone AI-native social platforms will emerge
“I personally think there's gonna be at least one probably multiple separate ones, and honestly, Grok is, is sort of kind of making a case there and being a social platform.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI creative tools will integrate deeper social mechanics like comments and followers
“And a lot of the AI creative tools I think can and should and will sort of integrate more social, but today most of them have just done relatively basic feeds and liking, not really comments, not really like a following model.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Justine Moore: Google's next video model will struggle with coherence and cost
“So I would imagine, you know, Google will want to train the next model that's even bigger and is able to generate longer videos, but we'll struggle with things like coherence, and we'll also struggle with, honestly, the pricing of the model.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Justine Moore: Consumer AI clones will expand to everyday real people
“But I think we'll start filling in everything in the middle that's not just like a character, a fictional character, not just like a human thought leader, but like all of the real people in between.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Justine Moore: Digital creators will split into human stars and AI personas
“I, my take is probably there will be fragmentation into, like, two types of creators or celebrities. One type is like a Taylor Swift type where, like, the human experience of it, I think, matters in some ways. Like, a lot of people not only love her song, but,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Justine Moore: Expect more specialized vertical AI companion apps
“We're gonna see even more vertical companions moving forward.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Justine Moore: Consumer smartphone home screens will change completely in six months
“You know, those people got what they wished for, and I feel like, you know, my home screen is gonna look completely different in six months.”
Prediction Held up
Justine Moore predicts Kling AI will add multi-frame support to Kling 2.1
“Right now, Cling. 2.1 only supports a start frame, not a start and end frame, but I would imagine that they're going to add more frames soon as they've done for their other models.”