why aren't all 65 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Moore: Traditional schooling should be replaced entirely by 24/7 AI tutors
“And then I'm on the other end of the spectrum where I'm, like, blow it all up and have everyone be taught by an AI tutor, like, all of the time.”
Insight
Justine Moore: App layer AI startups pioneered generation templates before OpenAI
“I would almost argue the application layer companies, like the Kriyas, the Hedras, the Higgsfields of the world, popularized that template format. And did it first and did it better.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Justine Moore: Sora succeeded as a creative tool but failed socially
“But I think what we've seen is like in the retention data and how we're seeing it used is it was massively successful as a creator tool. Like now my feed is probably two thirds AI slop, if not more. And I, over 50% of it is now Sora, whereas before it was like…”
Opinion
Moore: xAI's Grok has achieved the fastest multimodal progress in AI
“I think their image and video progress is probably the steepest slope I've seen of any of the companies.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moore: xAI is the only major AI lab not compute-bottlenecked
“I think XAI is probably the only model company that is not bottlenecked on compute from my understanding, whereas the others have to make really, like, serious and significant calls of, like, if we let, if we release Nano Banana and go super viral, like, it ma…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
A massive market will emerge for entertainment and companionship AI models
“I think there's going to be a huge market for more of these companionship entertainment, just having fun type models that doesn't need to be like the highest IQ person you know.”
Opinion
Moore: Instagram voice translation is Meta's only good 2025 consumer AI launch
“The one good consumer feature I think they've launched this year With AI is the Instagram AI translations”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: On-the-fly mini-apps will displace ad-heavy long-tail mobile apps
“Instead of having to find this long tail app that's running all these crazy ads, pop-ups all the time, and is hard to use and is not personalized to you can just make exactly what you want on the fly and tweak it”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: Merchant infrastructure for AI agents will equal consumer market
“The entire infrastructure and merchant facing side of it is probably going to change quite a bit. And I think that will be just as big as the consumer side of the market.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hugging Face and Civitai show non-data AI network effects
“Some of them are also starting to see what I would say are sort of the first kind of non-data network effects in AI. Especially things like Hugging Face and Civit AI, where, you know, you have these communities where people are hosting tons of models or lauras…”
Opinion
Moore: Very few AI companies care about what users actually want
“Like, you truly really care not just about training the best model for this use case, but also what your users actually want and what they're doing in a way that I think very few AI companies today do.”
Insight
Benchmark-topping AI models are not necessarily what consumers want for chat
“I don't necessarily think the like smartest model that scores the best on sort of all of these objective benchmarks of intelligence will be the model that people want to chat with.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Other US states will not replicate Illinois' AI mental health therapy ban
“I don't expect we'll see the other states go in the direction of Illinois, partially because it's just so hard to regulate.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Interactive world models will spawn a major personal gaming market
“And then, but I think the second gaming example is more like kind of what you're alluding to, which is more personal gaming, which is like every person puts in an image or video or text prompt, and then is sort of creating their own mini game where they're wan…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Generative world models will supply unlimited reinforcement learning environments for AI agents
“There's so many companies now selling these RL environments for agents that they're manually creating. And something like a genie three could make that Much easier and sort of allow you to generate unlimited environments for these agents to wander through and …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Specialized vibe coding platforms will emerge for distinct user segments and demographics
“And so I think what we are hoping to see basically is Like specialized players emerge that offer the best product for a particular demographic of user or for a particular use case. And that will probably imply very different product experiences, product constr…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Justine Moore: AI will generate end-to-end consumer brands from design to app
“I think we'll see brands that are, like, logo, product photo, maybe even product itself designed by AI, vibe-coded slash vibe-designed website or mobile app, and then kind of drop ship to the end consumer.”
Opinion
Moore: Veo 3 is currently the best text-to-video AI model
“So we're going to dive into my current AI video stack for consumer creators like me, starting with VO three, which I think is currently the best text to video model.”
Insight
Justine Moore: Consumer AI virality directly drives enterprise lead generation
“There's an initial consumer virality moment, and then that actually leads to lead generation in, Enterprise sales in a way that we did not see with the last generation of products.”
Opinion
Moore: OpenAI and Google's most viral 2025 models were image and video
“From a model perspective, I would say, I would argue their most viral models this year, at least among consumers, were in image and video.”
Opinion
Moore: Google's Nano Banana image models rivaled OpenAI's Ghibli moment in virality
“Nano banana and Nano banana pro in image models, which went insanely viral, probably comparable to, if not beyond the Ghibli moment for open AI.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moore: OpenAI integrated launches into ChatGPT while Google built standalone products
“What we saw was OpenAI tended to keep more things in the ChatGPT interface, so like Pulse, group chats, shopping, research, tasks, all of these features launched inside ChatGPT as the core. The exception there is obviously Sora as a standalone video app, where…”
Opinion
Justine Moore: Midjourney stands apart for default aesthetic quality
“Yeah, I think there's definitely different styles still, and I think mid-journey, when you talk to people really deep in image and video, it still kind of stands apart for this, like, aesthetic sensibility that a lot of the models don't have if you don't know …”
Assertion Supported
Justine Moore: Three times more U.S. teens have used Character.ai than Claude
“Yeah, there's I think it was three times more U.S. Teens have ever used character AI than have used Claude.”
Disclosure
Moore replaced over a dozen App Store utilities with Wabi mini-apps
“There were, like, probably over a dozen apps that I downloaded, and in some cases paid for, that I just totally didn't need anymore, because I had built better versions of it on Bobby.”
Opinion
Moore: Vibe-coded websites are not ideal for daily personal software
“We needed to move beyond this paradigm of like, great, you vibe code a website and it exists out there. But like, is that the best interface for you to be using a product you want to use daily and storing personal information on and having your own records and…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: AI tools will manage full shopping journeys
“This is probably going to be happening more and more, From the research side of things all the way to making purchases probably agentically when prices are right”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: AI shopping agents will benefit aggregators over single-SKU brands
“Which I think is gonna be an interesting challenge in the age of AI, too, because you could argue that AI agents can direct Direct people to things if people start their purchase activities there, which could be an opportunity or a challenge for, like, the sin…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moore: LLM hallucinations force shoppers back to Google and Amazon
“All, like, all LLMs, but I'll use ChatGPT as the example, because the most people use it have this really unfortunate and annoying problem of hallucinating around product recommendations that basically everyone experienced if you tried to use it for that.”
Insight
Moore: AI commerce disruption will target middle-consideration purchases
“So both ends of the spectrum, I think, are harder for AI to disrupt.”
Assertion Supported
ByteDance's Seedance video model outscores Google's Veo 3 on benchmarks
“ByteDance has also been doing a lot more around things like Seedance which is a really great video model they released that actually outscores VO-III on some of the arenas.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore predicts multiple standalone AI-native social platforms will emerge
“I personally think there's gonna be at least one probably multiple separate ones, and honestly, Grok is, is sort of kind of making a case there and being a social platform.”
What-if
Moore: Generative video enables indie creators to build studio-budget characters
“I'm starting to see a mix of totally new characters that, like, aliens, like in the Neural Viz series that people never would have been able to create and, like, film before unless you're, like, a Hollywood studio with a big budget.”
Insight
Moore: Monolithic AI video generation wastes compute and time on minor edits
“If you say, like, I want a two-minute video talking about this into a model that does it all at once, like the script generation, the video, the audio, like, that's like two whole minutes of points of tiny things you want to change, and then you've wasted, lik…”
Insight
Moore: Most revolutionary consumer AI stems from previously impossible capabilities
“I think some of the, like, most life-changing stuff comes out of things that you could never do with the technology we have before, that people are just randomly, like, Throwing stuff into a model and seeing what happens”
Insight
One-click mobile video generation is a massive step forward for consumer AI
“So I think it's sort of huge that you kind of can click one button and get a video on your phone in less than a minute. Like that feels like a massive step forward for consumer applications of AI creative tools.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI creative tools will integrate deeper social mechanics like comments and followers
“And a lot of the AI creative tools I think can and should and will sort of integrate more social, but today most of them have just done relatively basic feeds and liking, not really comments, not really like a following model.”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI's GPT-5 scored highest on the physician-trained HealthBench medical benchmark
“They talked about how GPT-V was kind of the highest scoring model on this thing called HealthBench, which is a benchmark they trained with like, 250 plus physicians. To measure how good an LLM is at answering medical questions.”
Assertion Supported
ElevenLabs trained its new AI music generation model on fully licensed music
“That the really interesting thing about it is it's trained on fully licensed music, which means, so music is one of those spaces where the rights holders are extremely litigious.”
Insight
Enterprise buyers require AI music models to be trained on licensed data
“Whereas, you know, businesses, enterprises, big media companies, gaming companies, like they care and they need to be able to say, you know, this music model we used was trained on fully licensed data to not kind of open themselves up to any liability issues.”
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: Deepfake celebrity math tutorials by OnLock Learning get millions of views
“Every video they post gets millions of views, and it's, like, explanations delivered by, like, deep fake AI celebrities of, like, math and physics content.”
Opinion
Justine Moore: Google Veo 3 Is AI Video's ChatGPT Moment
“VO three was sort of like the chat GPT moment for AI video.”
Assertion Supported
Justine Moore: Veo 3 API pricing is around 75 cents per second
“Some of the more developer-oriented, like, API platforms, like Fall or Replicate, are offering generations where you pay per video. It's priced around, like, 75 seconds. 75 cents per second today.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Justine Moore: Google's next video model will struggle with coherence and cost
“So I would imagine, you know, Google will want to train the next model that's even bigger and is able to generate longer videos, but we'll struggle with things like coherence, and we'll also struggle with, honestly, the pricing of the model.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Justine Moore: Natural conversational audio was unavailable before ElevenLabs Eleven v3
“And so for narrative storytelling, for ads, marketing, anything, it makes it sound like a natural conversation, which we've never had with AI voice before.”
Opinion
Justine Moore: Flux Context retains image consistency much better than GPT-4o
“And that's, I think that is what makes it different than the Foro image model, which is the consistency to which it retains the item or the character or whatever is much, much better.”
Opinion
Justine Moore considers Kling AI her favorite image-to-video model
“Up next is my favorite model for generating a video from an image. So this is where you're starting with a photo or any other sort of image, and you want to animate it. You want to make people move, maybe you want to make the background move, have things come …”
Opinion
Justine Moore: Hedra is by far her favorite character audio-sync tool
“Alright, next we're going to be talking about how you make a character speak, and my favorite tool for this is by far, Hedra.”