why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Billions of people will learn to delegate to machine assistants
“It's gonna become ubiquitous. People are, there's gonna be billions of people learning to delegate to a machine assistant”
Assertion Supported
A Google search penalty once wiped out Thumbtack's web traffic and revenue
“At Thumbtack, there was a moment, you may remember this, a decade ago, where I woke up, and I had a message from someone on our team in the Philippines, and it said, Thumbtack does not exist on the internet. I was like, what? And I went to Google, you type in …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI assistants will evolve into full autonomy like self-driving cars
“Yeah, I mean, it's a moving target, obviously, is gonna get increasingly more capable, and our view is it's like self-driving cars, where it's not self-driving overnight, it's you drive the Tesla at first, And then there's assisted steering and braking, and th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Athena engineer receives majority of task delegations via screen-monitoring AI
“The person who built this internally has been using it, the majority of his delegations are now machine-generated.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI will eventually automate weekly founder calendar and goal audits
“This is a place that AI is obviously going to automate, and it will be very powerful, or it's at the end of each week. It just tells you, here's what you prioritized. Are those actually your goals?”
Assertion Supported
Thumbtack launched with three non-technical co-founders and one technical co-founder
“I'd say, you know, one of the biggest, I don't know if I called a mistake at Thumbtack because I love my founders, but it's something I wouldn't recommend others do, is we had four co-founders, and one was technical, he left after like two years, and then the …”
Assertion Supported
Athena scaled to 1,000 people without raising outside capital
“Athena started fully bootstrapped, human-only, scaled to a thousand people, no outside capital”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI will absorb admin work as assistants shift to high-level management
“The human assistant will focus more on project management and high-level work and really be that, like, caretaker, the empathy, that partner. And the machine will increasingly do the more rote, mechanical, administrative stuff.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Athena receives 50,000 executive assistant applications monthly and hires one in 300
“You know, Athena, we have 50,000 assistants apply per month, and we put them through a huge battery of tests, and we hire like one in 300.”