The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lai: Future game worlds will be generated at runtime by neural networks
“And in the game worlds themselves can no longer, will no longer be rendered, but actually generated at runtime using neural networks.”
Jonathan Lai Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 2:50 2024 Big Ideas: AI-First Games That Never End with Jonathan Lai
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lai: Startups, not AAA incumbents, will build the most innovative AI games
“So I think in, in that same vein, I think the most innovative AI native experiences are more likely to be created by startups and teams that are just getting going and are bringing that fresh perspective, I suppose to coming at it with a lot of history and bag…”
Jonathan Lai Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 15:34 2024 Big Ideas: AI-First Games That Never End with Jonathan Lai
Prediction Held up
Lai: 2024 will bring the first cohort of AI-first games
“So in 2024, I believe we'll see the first cohort of AI-first games from creators that leverage large language models to enable novel game systems and mechanics.”
Jonathan Lai Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 1:52 2024 Big Ideas: AI-First Games That Never End with Jonathan Lai
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lai: Subscriptions will become default business model for AI games
“My guess is that companies like mid journey or care, like character AI have been able to address this with a subscription model. And so basically every power user pays for their own sort of like inference costs, so to speak. And we could see that subscription …”
Jonathan Lai Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 18:03 2024 Big Ideas: AI-First Games That Never End with Jonathan Lai
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lai: AI games will approximate inference costs via virtual currency
“And so you can imagine a similar thing happening with AI games where you have some measure of the influence cost for players, and that's approximated by a virtual currency inside the game.”
Jonathan Lai Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 20:32 2024 Big Ideas: AI-First Games That Never End with Jonathan Lai
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lai: Generative AI will move game agents into core gameplay
“I think one of the promises of generative agents is in elevating agents like the AI agents from a warmup into the core game itself.”
Jonathan Lai Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 6:12 2024 Big Ideas: AI-First Games That Never End with Jonathan Lai
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lai: Video game players will readily accept LLM-powered AI companions
“The idea of just turbocharging disks of large language models to make them more lifelike and enable them to have a wider range of expression and behavior, I think is going to be Very well accepted by players.”
Jonathan Lai Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 10:01 2024 Big Ideas: AI-First Games That Never End with Jonathan Lai
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lai: Successful AI game studios will look completely different from traditional developers
“My guess is that the AI game teams that get it right might actually end up looking very different from the traditional game developers of today.”
Jonathan Lai Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 22:30 2024 Big Ideas: AI-First Games That Never End with Jonathan Lai
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