why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Schmidt: Compute chips in NVIDIA's RTX 4090 and H100 are almost identical
“I think people don't actually realize that like a forty-ninety and like an H 100 are in a lot of ways the same card. For the non-gamers in the room, explain the forty-ninety. The chip that's inside of them is almost identical. The chip, the actual compute chip…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Schmidt: Decentralized training of 400B parameter AI models is solvable by 2025
“I think it still is, it would still be, you know, like a next year sort of environment thing that we would have to do. There are some scaling problems, or not scaling problems, but technical things about how you shard the model, because at that point you get t…”
Assertion Supported
Schmidt: Current AI training requires all GPUs in the same datacenter
“When it comes to training models, the current paradigm for training models requires that all of the GPUs that train the model, these, you know, these computers that do the training, they all have to be like in the same room.”
Assertion Supported
Nous Research replicates DisTrO training results using Allen AI's OLMo framework
“And we've re-implemented now a third time in their framework, and we're able to reproduce their training run exactly, and then did it again with Distro, got the exact same results we got with Natron and stuff.”
Assertion Supported
Schmidt: Elon Musk's xAI has acquired 100,000 NVIDIA H100 GPUs
“I think Elon's got a hundred, a 100,000 H 100 now.”