why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schmidt: Decentralized training will force NVIDIA to redesign chips around VRAM ratios
“What might happen sooner would be a redesign of the types of chips that NVIDIA or someone would make. Okay, under this model, we can dedicate more VRAM versus, there's like this question of how much VRAM versus how much processing power is on a die, and that, …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schmidt: Consumer gaming GPUs will become the sweet spot for distributed training
“Because you're able to distribute it so wide, I think the gaming GPU angle is really going to be like the sweet spot. If, as long as there's continued to be sort of like higher end gaming GPUs, and those are on comparison with the high end training GPUs, even …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Schmidt: Decentralized training of 400B parameter AI models is solvable by 2025
“I think it still is, it would still be, you know, like a next year sort of environment thing that we would have to do. There are some scaling problems, or not scaling problems, but technical things about how you shard the model, because at that point you get t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schmidt: DisTrO will eliminate data centers' InfiniBand dependency before edge AI dominates
“I think there's, you know, immediately coming out. What you'll see is the ability for even centralized actors who might have multiple data centers to now, like just use them in a more efficient way. Like just have N equals two, you know, like anything. And eac…”