The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Isa Fulford: Deep Research was the first AI model to do comprehensive browsing
“Deep Research, it was the first model to do, like, very comprehensive browsing.”
Fulford: OpenAI recycles agent model datasets to train frontier reasoning models
“We're able to take the data sets that we've created for The, you know, frontier agent models and then contribute it back to the frontier reasoning models.”
Fulford: RL breakthroughs in math and coding unlocked functional AI agents
“When we saw the reinforcement learning algorithm working really well on math and physics problems and coding problems, It became pretty clear, like, just from reading through the chain of thought, like, okay, this thing's actually, like, thinking and reasoning…”
Fulford: ChatGPT agent's browser and terminal access enable most human computer tasks
“The ChatGPT agent, for example, has such a general tool. It has a browser and a terminal, and between those two things, you can basically do most of the tasks that A human does on a computer.”
Fulford: OpenAI bootstraps browsing models to generate synthetic training data
“For initial deep research, there's not really any data sets that exist for browsing in the same way that you have a math data set that already exists. So we have to create all this data. But once you have good browsing models or good computer use models, you c…”
Isa Fulford: OpenAI defies startup wisdom by targeting universal users
“I mean, it's like everything they tell you not to do at a startup is just like your user is anyone.”
Isa Fulford: Reinforcement learning for specific model capabilities is data-efficient
“Training a model to be good at a specific capability is very data efficient. You don't need that many examples to teach it something new.”
Fulford: More efficient AI learning increases the necessity of high-quality data
“Now that we have such an efficient way of learning data is even high quality data is even, even more important.”
Fulford: AI agents must train on target tasks to reach top performance
“There's some generalization from training on, like, one website to another, but if you want to get really, really good at something, the best thing to do is just, like, train on that exact thing.”
Fulford: OpenAI requires user confirmation before agents execute irreversible actions
“We take a conservative approach, especially with like asking the user for confirmation before doing any kind of action that's irreversible. So like sending an email or ordering something, booking something.”
Fulford: Users will eventually grant AI agents autonomy for bulk actions
“So I think I can imagine quite You know, a number of tasks where you'd want to take, like, bulk actions which you might not be able to do right now because it would last you every single time, but I think as people get more comfortable using these things and a…”
Fulford: Current AI models can execute monitoring given proper harnesses
“I'm sure that you could build something that's, like, monitoring, you know, your Humio or, like, Datadog, whatever. Like, with these current models, it's just, like, setting up the harness, like, to make that possible.”
Isa Fulford: AI user patience quickly shifts from minutes to 30 seconds
“Initially people are like, oh, this is amazing. It's doing all this work. That would have taken me so long, and now people are like, ok, but I want it, now I want it in 30 seconds.”
Fulford: Users wrongly associate longer AI answers with thoroughness
“One thing that's interesting is I think sometimes people just bias to thinking that the longer answer is more, like, thorough, or it's done more work for it, which I don't necessarily think is the case.”
Fulford: Good researcher taste means simplifying problems to the most basic approach
“I think also I've been surprised by how often the thing that is, is the most simple, like easy to explain is the thing that works the best. And so sometimes it's like sound, seems very obvious, but It, you know, it's quite hard to get the details of something …”