The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hershberg: Restricting US-China biotech transactions via BIOSECURE Act is net negative
“I do think that there's some nuance in terms of how we think about regulation for this, right? It's probably not biosecure where you are totally trying to restrict Relationships and transactions between the U S and China, because that's just sort of net negati…”
Hershberg: Zero Amplify portfolio companies are running first-in-human trials in US
“So we have three companies in the next 12 to 18 months that will be starting first in human trials. You know, guess how many are actually doing their first studies in the United States?”
Hershberg: Clinical trial costs per patient ballooned from $10,000 to $500,000
“So when George Yonkopoulos started Regeneron, it cost about 10,000 dollars per patient in trial. That's ballooned to 500,000 dollars.”
Hershberg: Clinical research market consolidated into 12 primary providers
“So it actually turns out that there's been this enormous consolidation of the clinical research organization market that's come down to about a dozen providers who have each done roughly 40 acquisitions across 30 years.”
Hershberg: Biotech startups generate two-thirds of newly approved drugs
“Biotech startups now make two thirds of the drugs that go to market.”
Hershberg: AI biology platforms where the platform is the product remain compelling
“This is where I'm sort of an unequivocal platform bull still is that I think like one of the most exciting opportunities for AI and biology is this sort of world that we're going to where the platform is the product, right?”
Hershberg: Public biotech market contains an enormous amount of EV-negative companies
“We have an enormous amount of EV negative public companies.”
Hershberg: Drug development alpha relies on proprietary datasets and modeling tools
“To actually make something more beautiful and more potent at this stage of the game, the alpha probably is in really interesting data sets, new modeling tools and capabilities.”
Hershberg: Re-bundling biotech tools into integrated platforms is the primary opportunity
“I think that in biotech, we're in this sort of moment where there's a lot of opportunity in re-bundling. The types of platforms that I see that I'm super excited about Are this composite of incredible synthetic biology and genomics tools plus modeling you know…”
Hershberg: Certain funded AI biology firms do not plan to develop drugs
“There's a lot of AI and biology companies that are raising a lot of capital and some just have no aims to make drugs.”
Hershberg: Biotech experienced a 7-8 month IPO drought
“There was a stretch of seven to eight months where there were no biotech IPOs”
Hershberg: Illumina grew next-generation sequencing sales from zero to over $10B
“So at one point Illumina sold exactly zero dot zero dollars of next generation sequencing technology to the industry, right? That turned into over ten billion dollars of sales and, you know, independent large listed companies where their cost of goods sold wer…”