why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Stark: Early ICO windfalls create perverse incentives that impede shipping products
“There can be perverse incentives because now there's so much money and they're not actually able to ship a product.”
Assertion Supported
Stark: Some ICOs raised tens of millions before shipping any product
“But there's a world in which, okay, you know, there have been ICOs where on day one the folks involved made say tens of millions or more of dollars and they hadn't even shipped a product.”
Prediction Held up
Stark: Lightning Labs will never launch an ICO
“Well, I, I've said publicly, there's never going to be a lightning ICO.”
Disclosure
Stark: VCs laughed at Lightning Labs before the 2017 crypto shift
“So recently I was quoted as saying we're back in a Bitcoin, not blockchain world because so back when I was fundraising for my company, Lightning Labs nobody cared about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. People would laugh us away. They wouldn't take meetings with u…”
Insight
Stark: Base-layer token incentives are essential to maintain network decentralization
“Actually when you have the incentive mechanism that is tied to this Base layer currency or token, if you will, that actually maintains the decentralization of the network.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stark: Bitcoin is leaderless because Satoshi Nakamoto departed early
“Bitcoin is not ruled by a benevolent dictator. So Satoshi, the creator of Bitcoin actually left the community in very early and has not been seen since. One thing that I think is really fascinating is that there is no leader.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stark: Economic incentives will keep growing crypto networks secure
“The incentive structure is built such that there are so many people that are incentivized to not have the network be attacked, that we have not seen that happen as of yet, and I believe as these communities and these currencies grow we'll see even more of that…”
Opinion
Stark: Satoshi Nakamoto likely originated from early cypherpunk mailing lists
“And if I had to bet, I think those folks were on these mailing lists early back in the day, and they were working with that community as well.”
Opinion
Stark: Crypto skepticism mirrors 1990s media doubts about the internet
“There were some great articles from the mid nineties where people wrote like the internet will never be a thing. Right. And like some interesting quotes around. So the internet's impact on the economy will be less than that of the fax machine. And I think we'r…”
Opinion
Stark: Crypto in 2018 is at the internet's 1995 Netscape stage
“So I think we're in the mid nineties when it comes to say internet time, right? So 1995 was a year that Netscape IPO'd and the year that was seen as say the web going mainstream.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stark: Big tech UX talent will solve crypto usability challenges
“Getting the folks that say maybe we're doing You exit, you know, Apple, Google, Facebook, and coming into this world that can really think through these problems and develop compelling user experiences, I think is going to be a big part of it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stark: Tokenizing equity and securities will be a major trend by 2020
“And we're, we, we're seeing both traditional assets being tokenized and then the idea of securities tokens, like why not put equity on a blockchain, right? So I think that's going to be a big trend moving forward in the next two years.”
Assertion Supported
Stark: The U.S. government banned exporting strong cryptography in the 1990s
“So in the nineties, the U.S. Government actually banned the exporting of strong cryptography.”