The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel: OpenAI signed up to pay Oracle $80+ billion annually
“With OpenAI, it's not, and so there's gotta be some, like, error bars as you go further out in terms of, like, Will OpenAI exist in 28, 29 30, and will they be able to pay the 80 plus billion dollars a year that they've signed up to Oracle with, right?”
Patel: Huawei Sourced 2.9 Million TSMC Chips via Shell Entities
“They were able to acquire three million chips, 2.9 million chips from TSMC through these other entities, right? Roughly five hundred million dollars worth of orders”
Patel: AWS year-over-year revenue growth will re-accelerate above 20%
“This is the lowest AWS revenue growth will be on a year-to-year basis. For at least the next year, right? And it's re-accelerating to north of 20% again because of all these massive data centers they have online with Tranium and GPUs, right?”
Patel: Musk bought a Mississippi power plant to bypass energy constraints
“His facility's like a mile away from Mississippi, and he bought a power plant in Mississippi and he's putting turbines there. Yeah. The regulation is completely different, right?”
Patel: OpenAI will soon monetize free users via shopping affiliate fees
“And OpenAI makes nothing off of that. But they very, they really, really will soon, right? And partially that's because Amazon blocks chat, but like, you know, there's a way to make money from shopping decisions, whether it's Booking flights or looking for ite…”
Patel: Top Google TPU hardware engineers have left to join OpenAI
“The TPU team's next-gen designs are pretty non-aggressive, partially because a lot of the TPU team has left to go to OpenAI, the best people that I knew.”
Patel: NVIDIA Lost $20B+ China Revenue from H20 Ban
“Our revenue estimate for Nvidia in China for just H-twenty was north of twenty billion because that's what they were booking in capacity slash had to write off.”
Patel: China stockpiled lithography at 30-40% of equipment imports
“China, because they wanted, they sort of, like, wanted to stockpile lithography, and they were worried about the coming ban, they were importing lithography at a much higher rate than that, right? Like, 30, 40% of their equipment imports were lithography, and …”
Patel: China has only sampled HBM2 and not started HBM3 production
“Yield, they haven't even started production of high speed, of HBM-III, right? They've only done some sampling of HBM-II.”
Patel: NVIDIA is the only $10B+ semiconductor company founded post-1990
“It's the only semiconductor company that's worth, you know, I think even north of ten billion dollars that was founded as late as it was. Like MediaTek was in the early nineties and then Nvidia and everyone else is like from the seventies mostly.”
Patel: NVIDIA almost always ships first-pass A0 silicon
“So, like, NVIDIA always ships A zero. Almost always. They sometimes ship A one.”
Patel: Elon Musk deployed 100,000 GPUs in Memphis within six months
“A hundred K GPUs in six months. He bought a factory in like February of 24 and had models training within six months, right?”
Patel: NVIDIA GB200 yields 3x-4x performance per dollar on DeepSeek
“If you're running DeepSeq inference, the performance difference per GPU is like north of like six, seven X, and it continues to optimize you know, for DeepSeq inference. And so the, you know, then it's like, well, I'm only paying 60% more for six X, and it's l…”
Patel: Majority of OpenAI's revenue comes from consumer subscriptions
“Anthropic is fully focused on B to B, right? API code, et cetera, right? Where, or cloud code, whatever it is, right? OpenAI, yes, they have that business, Kodaks and API business, but really their majority of the revenue is consumer, right?”
Patel: 10% of Etsy's traffic originates from AI chatbots
“It's like Etsy, 10% of their traffic now comes from chat. And OpenAI makes nothing off of that.”
Patel: AI labs are buying RL environments for Amazon and Shopify
“Everyone knows that, like, Anthropic and OpenAI and all the other labs are buying RL environments of Amazon and of, like, Shopify and of Etsy and of all the different ways to shop on the internet. Of airline websites, right?”
Patel: NVIDIA maintains 75% gross margins compared to AMD's 50%
“I make a 75% gross margin as NVIDIA AMD sells their GPUs for 50% gross margin”
Patel: China subsidizes its semiconductor industry by up to $200B annually
“They're subsidizing the semiconductor industry to the tune of like, 152 hundred billion dollars a year through SOEs, through CapEx that's not generating revenue, et cetera.”
Patel: Alfalfa farming uses 100x more water than AI data centers
“Farming alfalfa uses like a hundred X the water of AI data centers. Even by the end of the decade, it'll be the same.”
Patel: Intel is ahead of Samsung on 2nm process technology
“They think, I think industry generally agrees that Intel is further along you know, the sort of the two nanometer class process technology than Samsung is but both are way behind TSMC.”
Patel: NVIDIA will hold over $100B in cash by late 2025
“The cash on their balance sheet keeps growing, and they're gonna have north of a hundred billion dollars of cash on their balance sheet by the end of this year, I think.”
Patel: Huawei surpassed Apple in TSMC orders and market share before bans
“Yeah, well, like, I mean, like, every other, like, Huawei's beat Apple, right? They passed Apple up in TSMC orders, they passed Apple up in phone market share not in the US, but, like, in many parts of the world. Before the bans came down, and then even now th…”
Patel: Oracle does not physically build its own data centers
“Oracle doesn't build their own data centers either, right? By the way, they get them from other companies. They co-engineer but they don't, Physically build them themselves.”
Patel: NVIDIA GB200 system costs $50,000 all-in per GPU
“If I'm talking about a GV 200, right? Each individual GPU is 1200 watts. But when you talk about the CPU, the whole system, it's roughly 2000 watts. At the same time, you know, all in, everything, simplicity's sake, 50,000 dollars per GPU, right? The GPU doesn…”
Patel: Sam Altman has softened his opposition to ChatGPT ads
“Cause he's shifted his tone massively on like ads over the last, Six months. Right. He used to be like, no way. And now he's like maybe, you know there's a way to do it without, you know, harming the user.”
Patel: Wall Street projects $360B hyperscaler CapEx next year
“The consensus for the banks is three hundred and sixty billion dollars of spend next year across all of them.”
Patel: Oracle purchases GPUs only 1-2 quarters before leasing
“The GPUs they purchase one to two quarters before they start renting them. So they, they're not, you know, the downside risk is pretty low for them in terms of If they don't get the deal, well, they don't get the revenue, but they're not, it's not like they ha…”