why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Field: Foundational AI models will eventually become commoditized
“On the question of sort of stars versus incumbents, it's hard to believe that Foundational models won't get commoditized, but I'm definitely being, I'm willing to be proven wrong there. But it does seem like, you know, over time, this should be something that …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dylan Field: Fully autonomous AI coding remains a long way off
“We're not at full self-driving for code yet. Perhaps one day we will get there, but I think we're still a long ways off right now.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Field: Code-based AI models will generate UI designs better than diffusion
“One outcome might be that we find more success with models that are similar to CodePilot than you do with like a diffusion model, for example, when you're trying to figure out how do you actually create designs using AI systems.”
Assertion Supported
Field: Figma did not spend years in development before contacting users
“I think that everyone that talks to me and says, hey we're trying to build our startup like Figma. We're going to take years to develop it. And we'll go talk to the, our first user. And I'm like, first of all, it's not what we did.”
Assertion Partly supported
Field: OpenAI is aggressively hiring product and design talent
“Look at open AI. Like they're on a hiring acquisition spree trying to get product people and designers right now so that they're able to make great consumer products.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Field: AI will lower the floor and raise the ceiling for design
“AI will make it so that all of us are able to do more design work in the first place. So lower the floor. For who's able to participate in the design process, but it also raised the ceiling of what you can actually do.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Field: Every major tech shift increases the volume of design work
“If you look at every technological shift or platform shifts so far, it's resulted in more things to design.”
Assertion Supported
Field: Figma documents are structured as abstract syntax trees
“On a technical level, if you look at the actual internal structure of Figma document, It's much more similar to an abstract syntax tree and less similar to like some image.”