The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Field: Foundational AI models will eventually become commoditized
“On the question of sort of stars versus incumbents, it's hard to believe that Foundational models won't get commoditized, but I'm definitely being, I'm willing to be proven wrong there. But it does seem like, you know, over time, this should be something that …”
Dylan Field: Fully autonomous AI coding remains a long way off
“We're not at full self-driving for code yet. Perhaps one day we will get there, but I think we're still a long ways off right now.”
Field: Code-based AI models will generate UI designs better than diffusion
“One outcome might be that we find more success with models that are similar to CodePilot than you do with like a diffusion model, for example, when you're trying to figure out how do you actually create designs using AI systems.”
Field: Figma did not spend years in development before contacting users
“I think that everyone that talks to me and says, hey we're trying to build our startup like Figma. We're going to take years to develop it. And we'll go talk to the, our first user. And I'm like, first of all, it's not what we did.”
Field: OpenAI is aggressively hiring product and design talent
“Look at open AI. Like they're on a hiring acquisition spree trying to get product people and designers right now so that they're able to make great consumer products.”
Field: AI will lower the floor and raise the ceiling for design
“AI will make it so that all of us are able to do more design work in the first place. So lower the floor. For who's able to participate in the design process, but it also raised the ceiling of what you can actually do.”
Field: History shows tech platform shifts favor startups over incumbents
“Basically every platform shift that's happened, people have claimed that and then it hasn't been the case. And so I think that if you're a startup, this is a pretty good time to basically pick the area that you think could really benefit from the technology an…”
Dylan Field: Top designers and developers are crossing into each other's domains
“The best designers are starting to think much more about code. The best developers are thinking much more about design.”
Field: Every major tech shift increases the volume of design work
“If you look at every technological shift or platform shifts so far, it's resulted in more things to design.”
Field: Most current AI startup deal flow remains at the infrastructure layer
“Most of the things that I'm seeing cause I do some investing in and feel like reasonably connected to the ecosystem. Most of what I see coming right now is still at the foundational slash you know, sort of base model area. And, you know, if it's not that it's …”
Dylan Field: AI applications in scientific discovery are vastly underexplored
“When it comes to science, Just the applications of all this technology that's happening right now are still completely underexplored, whether it's, you know, using deep learning to get approximations of systems faster or figuring out how we can just accelerate…”