The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dwarkesh Patel: Study found AI slowed senior developers down 20%
“The media uplift paper, contrary to expectations, they found that whenever senior developers working in repositories that they understood well used AI, they were actually slowed down by 20%. Yeah. Whereas they themselves thought that they were sped up 20%,”
Patel: OpenAI makes $10B annually, less than McDonald's or Kohl's
“This thing can reason, but it's making open AI ten billion dollars a year. And McDonald's and Kohl's make more than ten billion dollars a year, right?”
Patel: Running an H100 GPU costs significantly less than sustaining a human
“The marginal cost of keeping an H 100 running is much lower than the cost of keeping a human alive for a year.”
Patel: There are currently 10 million H100 equivalent GPUs worldwide
“Right now there's ten million H 100 equivalents in the world.”
Patel: An AI training cluster can run 100,000 inference copies simultaneously
“It is the case that for the amount of compute it costs to train a system if you like set up a cluster to train a system you can usually run a 100,000 copies of that model at typical token speeds on that same cluster.”
Patel: Frontier AI training compute grew 4x annually over past decade
“So the compute used on training a frontier system has grown four X a year for, I think like the last decade.”