why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ulevitch: Exquisite Military Platforms Will Not Win Future Wars
“I think the war in Ukraine really put a very, very bright light On how our exquisite large platforms are not gonna be the platforms for the fight of the future.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ulevitch: Surge in European Defense Spend Will Largely Flow to US
“And that spend is ultimately gonna go, there aren't enough incumbents in Europe to have all that money go to companies in Europe. So it's a huge opportunity for their strongest ally, which is the United States, for the companies here to actually go and increas…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ulevitch: Society is underestimating long-term electricity demand for AI compute
“And so, I do think that compute is gonna just, I think we actually probably are underestimating the amount of compute that we're gonna soak up over the, with electricity over the next, you know, 10, 2030, 4050 years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ulevitch: AI will collapse regulatory permitting times from months to minutes
“AI can just automate all these things that take armies of consultants, You know, months or years to do can be, you know, brought down into being minutes or hours.”
Prediction Held up
Ulevitch: a16z Will Shift Defense Investments Into Mining and Supply Chains
“I think as you look to the future, I mean, everyone has their own view of what the future will look like for American dynamism, but I think we, you'll see us increasingly shift left. That's why we look at minerals and we look at critical, critical minerals and…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ulevitch: Future grids will co-locate power generation, transmission, and storage
“The energy grid and electrical grid of the future, it's not just going to be the dichotomy of generation, transmission, and storage, but as Aaron brought up, like, you might do all three of those things in the same place and not have to worry about how... How …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ulevitch: Drones will soon automatically launch from police roofs on 911 calls
“I think we're very close to a moment in time where somebody can call nine one and a drone will be automatically dispatched from the roof of a police department to immediately provide eyes on the sky.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ulevitch: AI will streamline grid monitoring, efficiency, and regulatory permitting
“We're also at this sort of technology inflection point where AI can help some of these things not just be a consumption driver, but even be an enabler and facilitating more efficient use of electricity, better monitoring of the grid better, better ways to even…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ulevitch: Turnkey local clean energy will be solved in 10-15 years
“10 or 15 years from now, the idea that we can't just immediately turn on a reliable and enduring power source for a community, that's going to be unimaginable. Like, it just, it will be a solved problem.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ulevitch: Non-technical workers are starting to think and work like developers
“And what gets me excited is that I think we're all starting to think and work like developers.”