why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Reich: Modern medical care will worsen human genomic health over centuries
“Allowing people to live who would not have done so before through in vitro fertilization or through having glasses, despite correcting very bad eyesight, and as a result, it's probable that there are mutations building up that would not have been building up i…”
Assertion Supported
Reich: Unidentified Denisovan fossils are already sitting in East Asian museums
“Well, I think it's almost certainly the case that there has been a fossil record found, and it's staring us in the face in museums all around East Asia. So I think if you go to Southern China, or you go to Southeast Asia, or you go to parts of Russia, you will…”
Assertion Supported
Reich: Modern human populations are almost entirely products of mass migration
“But what we now know is that that's almost never true, and that the people who live in any one place today are almost always The result of layers and layers of mass migration and population mixture convulsively replacing and changing each population over time,…”
Insight
Reich: The family tree model for human populations is hopelessly wrong
“I think we have abandoned the idea of a family tree for thinking about human populations. I think that that model is just so hopelessly wrong that we actually have to think about new mental pictures to think about our relationships to each other.”
Assertion Supported
Reich: European ancestry in African Americans is four-to-one male-derived
“African Americans today have about 80% ancestry from West Africans and about 20% ancestry from Europeans with a lot of variation. But the European ancestry in African Americans comes four to one from the male side. So very little of it comes from European wome…”
Assertion Supported
Reich: India's genetics show sex-biased admixture 3,000 to 4,000 years ago
“If you look in people in India today are the result of a massive convulsive mixture between two groups that occurred around three or 4000 years ago, and we now know that from lots of lines of evidence, including ancient and modern DNA analysis. Now that proces…”
Assertion Supported
Reich: 70% of the human reference genome comes from one African-American individual
“About 70% of the human reference genome is that of an African-American who had about 50% European and 50% African ancestry. And then the remaining pieces of the reference genome, the remaining about 30%, comes from other individuals, some contributing more and…”
Assertion Supported
Reich: A migration from Russia replaced 90% of Britain's population 4,500 years ago
“Was that in this period, beginning about 4500 years ago, there was an absolutely huge population turnover, a massive migration from Russia into Central and Western Europe, where in Germany there was a minimum of 70% population replacement from people who came …”
Assertion Supported
Reich: 10,000 years ago West Eurasia had four genetically distinct groups
“But if you go back in time, 10,000 years ago, with the time machine of ancient DNA, and you study genetic material from people who lived in different parts of West Eurasia, we now know from ancient DNA that that region harbored four groups, each as different f…”
Assertion Supported
Reich: 85% to 90% of sequenced ancient DNA samples are Eurocentric
“So I think we are right now in a very Eurocentric phase where the great majority of samples, maybe 85 or 90%, are from Europe or far western Asia.”
Assertion Supported
Reich: Global Y-chromosome lineages collapsed 5,000 years ago to a few males
“If you look at all the Y chromosomes of people today in most of the world, there are many, many shared male ancestors in each generation until about 5000 years ago. And 5000 years ago, there has collapsed down to a very small number of male ancestors of the gr…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Reich: The unit cost for studying ancient DNA is under $200
“So the unit cost for studying each sample is less than 200 dollars in terms of chemicals and equipment.”
Disclosure
Reich: Lab generated genome-wide data for roughly 5,000 ancient individuals
“As of the last few weeks, we've obtained genome-wide data from about 5000 people, typically data from up to about one million positions in the genome, and that is enough to support the great majority of analyses of population history that could also be done ev…”
Assertion Partly supported
Reich: Modern populations in Oceania carry 3% to 5% Denisovan DNA
“People in New Guinea and Australia and the Philippines have about three to five percent of their DNA derived from Denisovans, archaic Denisovans who interbred with modern humans as modern humans settled these places.”
Assertion Supported
Reich: Mitochondrial Eve lived roughly 160,000 years ago in Africa
“The best guess is about a 160,000 years ago, and it's almost certainly that that person lived somewhere in Africa.”
Assertion Supported
Reich: Ancient DNA sequencing now yields millions of times more data
“What's changed now is that we can obtain literally millions of times more data from each individual at far lower cost and access individuals who cannot be accessed before.”
Assertion Supported
Reich: The oldest sequenced genome is a 700,000-year-old horse from Alaska
“The oldest genome that has been sequenced is by Ludovic Orlando in Copenhagen, a 700,000 year old ancient horse from Alaska.”
Assertion Supported
Reich: Neanderthals had a persistently small population size for 500,000 years
“One of them is that Neanderthals were of an incredibly small population size, marginal population size for a half million years since separation from modern humans, persistently low population size.”
Assertion Supported
Reich: Neanderthal genetic diversity is off-the-charts low across the animal kingdom
“If you look at across the entire animal kingdom at how low genetic diversity is, modern humans are at the low end, but they're not off charts. Neanderthals are off charts. They were a population that must have been going through repeated population crashes, di…”
Assertion Partly supported
Reich: Late Neanderthals descended from one group re-expanding post-crash
“Another thing that we can see is that the late Neanderthals, the ones that modern humans encountered sometime after 50,000 years ago when modern humans spread from Africa, the late Neanderthals really descend from another population crash, one particular group…”
Assertion Supported
Reich: Recovered ancient DNA fragments average 40 to 50 letters long
“When we actually get DNA sequence successfully from ancient individuals, typically the fragments of DNA are really short about maybe 40 or 50 DNA letters long.”