The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Clark: Top 1% VC exit threshold could pass $100B by September
“And then if you then think about OpenAI and Anthropic coming in you know, potentially we could be north of a hundred billion dollars by September.”
David Clark May 29, 2026 ▶ 8:58 The New Rule for Picking AI Winners | The a16z Show
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Clark: Chinese LLMs lag US by six months but are 10x cheaper
“The leading LLMs in, in China are probably six months behind where we are in the U.S. In terms of the capability of their models, but they're 10 X cheaper.”
David Clark May 29, 2026 ▶ 14:59 The New Rule for Picking AI Winners | The a16z Show
Assertion Not checkable as stated
David Clark: Top 1% VC exit threshold reached $32 billion
“Between 2020 and 2024, top one percent exit started at ten billion dollars. We updated those numbers in February this year, twenty billion dollars. We just updated them yesterday. It's now at thirty two billion dollars. So we've tenxed over the space of kind o…”
David Clark May 29, 2026 ▶ 0:12 The New Rule for Picking AI Winners | The a16z Show
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Clark: 80% of respondents in UK VC survey call AI valuations too high
“So it's funny, one of my colleagues was at a conference yesterday that was run by the UK Venture Capital Association. And they surveyed the audience saying, you know, what do you think about AI valuations today? You know, too high, about right, you know, too l…”
David Clark May 29, 2026 ▶ 21:50 The New Rule for Picking AI Winners | The a16z Show
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Clark: Traditional life science investments consistently cap out at 10x
“One of the things we've seen with traditional life science investing, when we look at our database, is that there's very much a limit on the sort of multiples that you can achieve on a single investment. The best we see consistently is around the 10 X, and it'…”
David Clark Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 10:17 On Machine Learning in Medicine and More
Assertion Supported
Clark: 40% of Forbes AI 50 startups turned over year-over-year
“From last year to this year, 40% of the companies that were on that list last year dropped off.”
David Clark May 29, 2026 ▶ 11:36 The New Rule for Picking AI Winners | The a16z Show
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