The Ledger
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Shankar: Full 6DOF standalone VR headsets will launch within 18 months
“There are going to be dev kits of that next year, and that shows that if you move the price point up, and if you move the timeline of another six to 12 months or 18 months, you do get a fully standalone headset that does have the full capabilities of six degre…”
Shankar: The major AR app wave requires headsets, not smartphones
“I don't think you'll have that second wave until it's actually in a headset, until it's on a head mount.”
Shankar: Augmented reality is nowhere near its consumer iPhone moment
“But I think AR is, is nowhere close to its iPhone moment in the sense that the price point is sufficiently far beyond what most people would be able to afford right away.”
Shankar: No major tech player will release consumer AR headsets before 2019
“Not to mention the consumer versions of these devices, whether Apple, Magic Leap, Hollins, none of the major AR players are releasing anything really until 2019 in terms of a consumer usable headset.”
Shankar: VR leveraged mobile supply chains, but AR lacks equivalent components
“The whole VR movement got kickstarted off just mobile devices. The iPhone and the entire mobile ecosystem of hardware allowing cheap gyroscopes and cheap displays, cheap high resolution displays to be used to bootstrap the initial VR headsets.”
Shankar: Software, not hardware, causes VR motion sickness
“At this point it's the software that's making people sick, not the actual hardware itself.”
Shankar: VR content drives tens of weekly hours for the first time
“And I think this is the first time in, in the history, the multi-decade history of VR, where The content is compelling enough that people are spending tens of hours a week using these headsets.”
Shankar: Hardly any startups received venture funding for ARKit or ARCore
“And you're seeing the same thing with ARKit, where there's maybe a handful of startups, hardly anyone got funded on ARKit or ARCore.”
Shankar: AR headset prices will exceed $1,000 for the next three years
“We're talking about price points that are north of a thousand dollars for the foreseeable future, for the next two to three years.”
Shankar: Post-Oculus acquisition VR forecasts were wildly hyper-inflated
“Back when Facebook bought Oculus, that's when expectations of VR started to get wildly away from reality. Oh, by 2016, there's gonna be 20, fifty million headsets out there. There might be a hundred million headsets by 2017. Some analysts definitely blew a lot…”
Shankar: 360 VR sharing requires effortless consumer capture tools first
“Pre-sixty content once it becomes extremely easy to film, extremely easy to capture for every consumer the way we capture with our phones, any sort of photos, that becomes really easy to share. That becomes, but first, you have to make it really easy to captur…”
Shankar: Curated bundled content always precedes user-generated platforms
“If you look at the history of, The internet, the web, and mobile, a lot of bundling was occurring in the early days where it wasn't completely user generated. It wasn't Geocities super early on. It was a lot of, it was AOL. It was kind of bundled news before e…”