The Ledger
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Amodei: AI training costs will hit $1B in 2024 and up to $10B in 2025
“I think that next year we're probably going to see from multiple players models on the order of one billion dollars, and in 2025 we're going to see models on the order of Several billion, I don't know, perhaps even ten billion dollars.”
Amodei: AI scaling laws will continue driving improvements without algorithmic breakthroughs
“I think we are on track, even if there were no algorithmic improvements from here, even if we just scaled up what we had so far, ah, I think the scaling laws are going to continue, and I think that's going to lead to amazing improvements.”
Amodei: AI inference will remain affordable over next 3-4 years
“I think my basic view is that inference will not get that much more expensive. The simple, you know, the basic logic of the scaling laws is that if you increase compute by a factor of n, you need to increase data by a factor of square root of n. And size the m…”
Anthropic plans to formalize a safe scaling framework with capability checkpoints
“One broad way that we've been thinking about it from the beginning and are probably going to work more on formalizing it over the coming months and years is this idea of sort of safe scaling or checkpointing. So there could be this kind of alternating step whe…”
Amodei: AI models will never have infinite context windows due to compute
“Really the main thing holding back infinite context windows is just, you know, as you make the context window longer and longer, of course, the majority of the compute starts to be in the context window. So at some point it just becomes too, too expensive in t…”
Amodei: Scaling compute and coding data will inevitably advance AI reasoning
“We're getting more compute. We can scale up the models more and we can greatly increase the amount of data that, that is programming. So, so, so we have so many ways that we can amplify this. And so Of course it's gonna work. It's just a matter of time.”