why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Litt: Multiple preprint papers have appeared with identical AI-generated proofs
“Like, sometimes, you know, we've seen examples where, like, three or four or five papers with the exact same proof of the exact same theorem have come out in, within a couple days of each other, which is clearly, you know, some situation where someone's playin…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Litt predicts AI might autonomously build mathematical theories within six months
“My experience is that, like, if they can do it with, like, a hundred bits of hints or whatever in six months, maybe they can do it without hints.”
Assertion Supported
Litt: Mathematicians used AI Erdős proof ideas to solve other open conjectures
“So a bunch of mathematicians took those ideas and used them to find counterexamples to a bunch of other interesting open questions. So, for example, like the sum product conjecture over the real numbers.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Litt: Frontier AI models cannot autonomously perform mathematical theory building
“So like, I've tried to get both, both Fable and ChatGPT, 5.6 Sol, I guess, to do some kind of theory building, and it's like, they're not, they definitely are not good at it autonomously, at least with, like, whatever scaffolding I've set up. But with some hin…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Litt: Claude was useless for research math until Opus 4.5 or 4.6
“One thing is that ChatGPD got better at math earlier. Yes. So, like, for a long time the Claude models were just, like, not useful for research math. And then I think maybe around Opus 4.5 or Opus 4.6, they, like, more or less caught up.”