The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Boneh: An operating quantum computer will likely be built within his lifetime
“I would speculate that in my lifetime, We'll probably see some sort of a, of operating quantum computer.”
Dan Boneh Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 33:34 a16z Podcast | Crypto, Security, CS, Quantum Computing, and More with Our New Professor-in-Residence
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Matter Labs achieved zkEVM capability decades ahead of expectations
“Compiling Uniswap V-II solidity into you know, a snark capable circuit. We thought this was going to be decades away and you got it to work.”
Dan Boneh Nov 8, 2021 ▶ 36:40 Scaling Up Blockchains with Zero-Knowledge Proofs
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Functional quantum computers would break modern internet cryptography and Bitcoin
“All the world of crypto that we use on the internet today, and for Bitcoin as well, ah, would be well, would be broken if someone was able to build a quantum computer.”
Dan Boneh Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 31:23 a16z Podcast | Crypto, Security, CS, Quantum Computing, and More with Our New Professor-in-Residence
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Stanford researchers developed a zero-knowledge solvency proof for Bitcoin exchanges
“So what we designed is basically A mechanism that allows you to prove solvency, but do it in a way that's called zero knowledge. So you can prove that you're solvent, so an exchange, can prove that the amount of bitcoins it has is more than the obligations tha…”
Dan Boneh Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:22 a16z Podcast | Crypto, Security, CS, Quantum Computing, and More with Our New Professor-in-Residence
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Big tech security teams possess the authority to delay product launches
“In big companies like Microsoft, Apple, Google security teams in fact are involved in the process from the design phase, which is really important. And then if a product is about to ship out and a security, the security team discovers a big vulnerability, they…”
Dan Boneh Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 37:23 a16z Podcast | Crypto, Security, CS, Quantum Computing, and More with Our New Professor-in-Residence
Assertion Supported
Bitcoin exchange solvency can be proven without trusted auditors
“The beauty of Bitcoin is that you need no trust in third parties. And this proof of solvency can be done without, ah, any expense, any payments done to a third party.”
Dan Boneh Jul 28, 2017 ▶ 6:32 Dan Boneh
Assertion Supported
Boneh notes Hal Finney envisioned crypto trading cards in 1993
“Even in 1993, Hal Finney wrote a blog post, believe it or not, in 1993, Wrote a blog post about crypto trading cards, right?”
Dan Boneh May 18, 2021 ▶ 7:08 The Future of NFTs
Assertion Supported
Boneh notes companies are enabling borrowing against NFTs as collateral
“If you own an NFT, you can borrow against that NFT as collateral. Basically, you can mortgage your NFT, and already we're seeing some companies doing that.”
Dan Boneh May 18, 2021 ▶ 13:16 The Future of NFTs
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Computer science is now the largest major at Stanford University
“The computer science major at Stanford is, is exploding in the sense that we are now the largest major on campus and it's continuing to grow.”
Dan Boneh Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:12 a16z Podcast | Crypto, Security, CS, Quantum Computing, and More with Our New Professor-in-Residence
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Computer science is a top-two major for women at Stanford
“It's kind of interesting that we're even the largest either largest or second largest major for women on campus. So if you literally count number of women, computer science is now either the largest or the second largest on campus.”
Dan Boneh Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:23 a16z Podcast | Crypto, Security, CS, Quantum Computing, and More with Our New Professor-in-Residence
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Only 6% of Gmail users had enabled second-factor authentication in 2018
“There was just a paper published last summer that claims something like six percent of Gmail users.”
Dan Boneh Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:21 a16z Podcast | Crypto, Security, CS, Quantum Computing, and More with Our New Professor-in-Residence
Assertion Partly supported
Generating a solvency proof for 500,000 customers takes 10 minutes
“So the exchange will take 10 minutes to generate the proof.”
Dan Boneh Jul 28, 2017 ▶ 15:53 Dan Boneh
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Intel AES round execution will drop to two cycles within two years
“In two years, it's gonna get down to two cycles.”
Dan Boneh Jul 28, 2017 ▶ 18:33 Dan Boneh
Assertion Contradicted
Bitcoin market capitalization has stabilized around $3.5 billion
“Today the, you can see that in the last six months or so, things have kind of stabilized, and market capitalization is around three and a half billion.”
Dan Boneh Jul 28, 2017 ▶ 2:28 Dan Boneh
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