why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Boneh: An operating quantum computer will likely be built within his lifetime
“I would speculate that in my lifetime, We'll probably see some sort of a, of operating quantum computer.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boneh predicts Bitcoin and Ethereum data will survive until year 3000
“So I think that the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains are going to be with humanity now forever, you know, in the year 3000, you know, the era of Futurama, we're still going to be looking at the Ethereum and Bitcoin blockchains. Maybe they won't be called that,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dan Boneh: 50x blockchain speedups will unlock unimaginable new applications
“The same thing is going to happen here is that, you know, we speed things up by a factor of 50 and all of a sudden we get a whole bunch of new applications we couldn't even imagine.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boneh predicts the widespread emergence of fractional NFT ownership
“So that's pretty interesting, and I think we're going to be seeing things like fractional ownership of NFTs.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boneh predicts an aftermarket for composable NFT enhancements will emerge
“We're going to see enhancements to NFTs, so you can buy an NFT, and then there could be an aftermarket for enhancing it, like this image that you have, your background image, Ariana.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boneh: Blockchains will adopt quantum-resistant signatures before quantum threats emerge
“Quantum computers are ever built. Yes, they will be able to affect the signature algorithm that's used for securing assets on blockchains today, but not to worry. We have other signature algorithms that are actually quantum resistance. So even if you have a qu…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Intel AES round execution will drop to two cycles within two years
“In two years, it's gonna get down to two cycles.”