why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Boneh: An operating quantum computer will likely be built within his lifetime
“I would speculate that in my lifetime, We'll probably see some sort of a, of operating quantum computer.”
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Matter Labs achieved zkEVM capability decades ahead of expectations
“Compiling Uniswap V-II solidity into you know, a snark capable circuit. We thought this was going to be decades away and you got it to work.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boneh predicts Bitcoin and Ethereum data will survive until year 3000
“So I think that the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains are going to be with humanity now forever, you know, in the year 3000, you know, the era of Futurama, we're still going to be looking at the Ethereum and Bitcoin blockchains. Maybe they won't be called that,…”
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Functional quantum computers would break modern internet cryptography and Bitcoin
“All the world of crypto that we use on the internet today, and for Bitcoin as well, ah, would be well, would be broken if someone was able to build a quantum computer.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dan Boneh: 50x blockchain speedups will unlock unimaginable new applications
“The same thing is going to happen here is that, you know, we speed things up by a factor of 50 and all of a sudden we get a whole bunch of new applications we couldn't even imagine.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boneh predicts the widespread emergence of fractional NFT ownership
“So that's pretty interesting, and I think we're going to be seeing things like fractional ownership of NFTs.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boneh predicts an aftermarket for composable NFT enhancements will emerge
“We're going to see enhancements to NFTs, so you can buy an NFT, and then there could be an aftermarket for enhancing it, like this image that you have, your background image, Ariana.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boneh: Blockchains will adopt quantum-resistant signatures before quantum threats emerge
“Quantum computers are ever built. Yes, they will be able to affect the signature algorithm that's used for securing assets on blockchains today, but not to worry. We have other signature algorithms that are actually quantum resistance. So even if you have a qu…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Boneh: Implicit authentication false positive rates remain too high for mass adoption
“The false positive rates on that are still a little too high for it to be massively and widely used, but that is definitely a very interesting direction.”
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Stanford researchers developed a zero-knowledge solvency proof for Bitcoin exchanges
“So what we designed is basically A mechanism that allows you to prove solvency, but do it in a way that's called zero knowledge. So you can prove that you're solvent, so an exchange, can prove that the amount of bitcoins it has is more than the obligations tha…”
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Big tech security teams possess the authority to delay product launches
“In big companies like Microsoft, Apple, Google security teams in fact are involved in the process from the design phase, which is really important. And then if a product is about to ship out and a security, the security team discovers a big vulnerability, they…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency to achieve working adoption
“This is the first cryptocurrency that's actually seems to work, that's actually been, being adopted.”
Assertion Supported
Bitcoin exchange solvency can be proven without trusted auditors
“The beauty of Bitcoin is that you need no trust in third parties. And this proof of solvency can be done without, ah, any expense, any payments done to a third party.”
Assertion Supported
Boneh notes Hal Finney envisioned crypto trading cards in 1993
“Even in 1993, Hal Finney wrote a blog post, believe it or not, in 1993, Wrote a blog post about crypto trading cards, right?”
Assertion Supported
Boneh notes companies are enabling borrowing against NFTs as collateral
“If you own an NFT, you can borrow against that NFT as collateral. Basically, you can mortgage your NFT, and already we're seeing some companies doing that.”
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Computer science is now the largest major at Stanford University
“The computer science major at Stanford is, is exploding in the sense that we are now the largest major on campus and it's continuing to grow.”
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Computer science is a top-two major for women at Stanford
“It's kind of interesting that we're even the largest either largest or second largest major for women on campus. So if you literally count number of women, computer science is now either the largest or the second largest on campus.”
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Only 6% of Gmail users had enabled second-factor authentication in 2018
“There was just a paper published last summer that claims something like six percent of Gmail users.”
Assertion Partly supported
Generating a solvency proof for 500,000 customers takes 10 minutes
“So the exchange will take 10 minutes to generate the proof.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Intel AES round execution will drop to two cycles within two years
“In two years, it's gonna get down to two cycles.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bitcoin market capitalization has stabilized around $3.5 billion
“Today the, you can see that in the last six months or so, things have kind of stabilized, and market capitalization is around three and a half billion.”