why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCune: Effective Altruists spent a decade funding think tanks to steer AI
“You know, from my point of view and look, you know, they deserve a lot of credit. I think the effect of altruist community for 10 years backed by large sums of money were very, very effective at influencing think tanks and nonprofit organizations in D.C. And t…”
Assertion Supported
McCune: Current AI tech lobbying is dwarfed by decade of safety spending
“But I mean, when people are writing these articles about the fact that the AI industry is, you know, pumping all this money into the system, Certainly, like, I'm not suggesting that there's not money in the system. We're obviously active on the political and p…”
What-if
McCune: Regulating AI like nuclear power would cause U.S. to lose to China
“Had we done the same thing in AI in that period of time, then you don't have the medical advancements. You don't have the breakthroughs. You don't have all of the things that come from this that are incredible. But beyond that, we lose to China. Full stop.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCune: Restricting U.S. AI exports will allow China to capture global markets
“The more that we lock down obviously American products, the more Chinese, the Chinese will enter those markets and sort of take a land grab in that space.”
Disclosure
McCune: a16z donated to Leading the Future PAC for AI political advocacy
“And that's, you know, part of the reason that we have recently announced our donation to leading the future pack, which will have, you know, several different entities underneath it, which I think is, Is designed to sort of be that political center of gravity …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCune: No D.C. group specifically represented early-stage tech startups before a16z
“There wasn't anyone specific who was actually advocating on behalf of what I think, what we call little tech, which I think in my mind are the startups and entrepreneurs, the smaller builders in the space.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCune: Lawmakers are using AI policy to fix the 1996 Telecom Act
“There are a number of members of Congress that feel like, well, we missed it on the 96 telecom act. Like that wasn't, we didn't do good enough around then. So we need to rewrite the wrongs through the venue of an AI policy conversation”
Insight
McCune: Federal AI preemption failed due to disorganized industry advocacy
“The industry was just not organized well enough, right? And that's not just the industry, it's also the people who care about this thing that aren't actually industry stakeholders. The stakeholders who were pro some level of moratorium or some level of preempt…”
Disclosure
McCune: a16z does not advocate for zero regulation across its portfolio
“I actually can't think of a single example across the portfolio in which we are arguing for zero regulation.”
Insight
McCune: Startup policy interests often diverge from big tech incumbents
“What we realized was, well, they're not always a hundred percent aligned with what's going on with the big tech folks.”
Assertion Contradicted
McCune: U.S. nuclear regulation yielded only two or three plants in 50 years
“The nuclear policy In the United States has yielded two, three new nuclear power plants in a 50 year period since these organizations have been started.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCune: U.S. AI policy prioritizing growth over safetyism will remain for years
“That dynamic and that shift of rhetoric is incredibly important because what that does is it signals to the rest of the world. It signals to other governments that this is the position of the United States and will be the position for the next three and a half…”