The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Power: U.S. would take 5 years to rebuild exhausted ballistics inventory
“But if we have one conflict with China where we expand most of our ballistics inventory, We might not be able to remake it for like five years. Then we're basically standing around, you know, with our hands tied behind our backs.”
Power: US government will pick category winners in defense within two years
“I think alongside that certain areas of the government where there's a lot of immature companies, they're going to spend the next year making eight bets and seeing how it plays out. And in certain other areas, I think in the next two years, what you're going t…”
Power: China demographic decline accelerates Taiwan conflict timeline
“My thesis on this is because of the one child policy is going to really drop off China's population very quickly at a certain period of time. It creates this forcing function where in my opinion that the Taiwan scenario is more likely to happen because if they…”
Power: Deterring China for 10-15 years secures peace for 300 years
“I think that unless it goes hot in 28 is going to be 10 to 15 years. And as long as we can Hold them off there. Then their population drops off and we're good for another 300 years. Like that's kind of how I view the equation.”
Power: U.S. way of life faces existential risk without manufacturing reform
“Unless we solve this problem, I think the country and, you know, our way of life is, is a six existential risk.”
Replenishing US ballistics after a China conflict could take five years
“In reality, we're probably so far away from doing that, that if we have one conflict with China, where we expand most of our ballistics inventory, we might not be able to remake it for like five years.”
Power: Reliable supply chains will cut aerospace manufacturing costs by 30-50%
“Most of the products will be able to drop their manufacturing costs by like 30 to 50%, not because of cheaper parts, but because of the reliability and the ability to compress schedule around that reliability.”
API-driven manufacturing will let hardware startups launch without $40M in funding
“It's going to be amazing in a couple of years to see, you know, a bunch of like engineering grads you know, tooling around at their garage and like, Seeing, seeing Google style startups happen without forty million dollars in funding and just to get off the gr…”
Power: Geopolitical defense wake-up call coming within two years
“It's incredibly scary, and I think people are going to get a really hard wake up call in the next two years.”
Hadrian will launch two 500,000-square-foot manufacturing facilities next year
“We built a 100,000 square foot in LA, and then we're going to launch two new facilities next year, which are about half a million square foot each, and then we'll keep expanding to every state”
Power: Space Technology Will Function as Infrastructure, Not Have a Killer App
“No, I don't think there's a killer app and I don't think there will be because it's like you know, does your average consumer, You know, know about AWS, not really like outside of our technology domain, but like can any of the stuff that they love exist withou…”