The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 87 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dixon: eSports growth will relegate physical sports to a niche like horseback riding
“I think we're in this hockey stick right now with eSports. Like video games, it's just gonna be obvious that like, it's gonna seem, I mean, I think it's always great that people play physical sports, I'm not anti, but you know, it'll be like horseback riding, …”
Dixon: Token Models Will Become the Dominant Internet Business Model
“And we've now discovered this great business model, which I think will be the dominant business model of the internet and is the true kind of native business model of networks.”
Dixon: Sugar will be the biggest killer of this generation
“Sugar is the new smoking. It's going to you know, kill, it's going to be by far the biggest killer of this generation.”
Dixon: AI will continue scaling exponentially like semiconductors
“I think my sense is AI is in that kind of, you know, semiconductor like place where you have this meta process that's very likely to continue scaling exponentially for a very long time.”
Dixon: Next-best open AI models in 5 years will suffice for startups
“You know, the next best model in five years will probably be good enough. For most startups, it will probably be good enough.”
Dixon: People will make AI-generated feature films within two years
“In two years, you'll have people making feature-length films.”
Dixon: AI will consolidate internet traffic into 3 to 5 major systems
“That's probably where we're headed is a world where you have sort of Five big systems, let's call it, you know, three to five big AI systems, you go to their websites, they give you an answer, and you don't, and so what happens to the billion other websites if…”
Dixon: AI will centralize tech power without blockchain as a counterbalance
“I do think that, that without a counterbalancing force, It will tend to be a centralizing technology in that it will kind of reward companies with large amounts of data and capital. And I argue that this makes the need for blockchain based networks kind of mor…”
Dixon: AI will drive the monetary value of selling content to zero
“And I would argue that AI will accelerate the need for the new business models, right? Cause it's going to nuke the model of selling content is going to go to zero. I assume, right? The value will shift to selling community and attention and, you know, partici…”
Dixon: Community is the dividing line between successful and failed NFTs
“I think when we look back in this period and we say what sort of NFTs work and what didn't the key dividing line would be community, right? This is why crypto punks is so strong. This is why NBA top shot is so strong. And I think on contrast, you know, there's…”
Dixon: Crypto, AI, and VR are approaching a breakthrough iPhone moment
“I believe we're on the precipice now, not just crypto, I think AI and virtual reality, and there's a bunch of really exciting things happening, but we're about to hit that point where you get kind of the iPhone moment”
Dixon: Cable TV bundle economics will collapse in the near future
“And the economics too, like the, you know, like the cable bundle is going to break at some point, I think soon, right? But at some point, like the economics will, like fundamentally, like it will no longer work to have the cable bundle. I think that's, Relativ…”
Dixon: VCs will not fund third-party tools for closed platforms
“You will not see any VC. We have not funded. No one will fund an anti-spam solution for Twitter or Facebook.”
Dixon: Token incentives will become a powerful go-to-market strategy
“This promises hopefully to be a very powerful new kind of go-to-market tool for entrepreneurs.”
Dixon: Crypto will reinvent Airbnb, WhatsApp, and Lyft by 2030
“Hospitality, services like Airbnb, messaging, things like WhatsApp, ride sharing, services like Lyft, you know, I think all of these, I believe we'll see over the next decade, all of these things kind of reinvented.”
Dixon: WebAssembly will become the world's most dominant software runtime environment
“There are now billions of computers that run WASM natively and it will soon become, or already is, and it's going to continue to become the most dominant kind of runtime environment for software in the world.”
Dixon: NFTs and digital goods will regain mainstream popularity
“I think another interesting area is it's fall, it's kind of out of fashion at the moment, but I think we'll come back is NFTs or you know, digital goods.”
Dixon: NFT adoption by creators will spread like wildfire
“So there's going to be a whole bunch of experiments of creative people using crypto assets as ways to, you know, kind of think about new business models, and all you need is one or two of those experiments to work, and then suddenly a new thing, you know, goin…”
Dixon: Open-source crypto protocols will win just like Linux did
“The fact that it's open, and anyone can take it, and hack it, and fork it, and look at it, and audit it, and do all these things, like, this is why Linux won, right? And this is why all this stuff is going to win.”
Dixon: Digital goods will surpass physical goods in value in 10-20 years
“It's going to be obvious 10 to 20 years from now, especially as like the newer generation kind of grows up and just, of course, like, of course an emote is worth more than a, you know, offline equivalent or whatever.”
Dixon: Crypto Will Adopt Faster Than Web 1.0 Because Hardware Exists
“I'm more optimistic about the crypto stuff happening sooner because it's software-based, meaning the hardware's already built out, and now we just need to, like a few quick, you know, A few clever incentives and some nice software, and you suddenly have, like,…”
Dixon: Tech is at peak centralization and will shift back to decentralization
“I believe we're at sort of peak centralization, and we're going to see more and more interesting things happening, and there's sort of this kind of, you know, it's like a lot of things in life, like politics and, you know, fashion trends and other things, like…”
Dixon: Token networks redesign the internet so participants own network value
“A lot of what's going on here is new internet. You know, it's sort of redesigning the architecture of the internet in a way that allows for the participants of the internet to own a piece of those networks. And ultimately those networks will have value and tho…”
Dixon: Crypto business models will shift capital back to open protocols
“Now open is developing its own kind of business model around this, which I think is going to shift a lot more energy, I hope, And money and funding and a whole bunch of other things back to the forces of open have a new set of new arsenal.”
Chris Dixon: Oculus is at the Apple II stage of VR
“We think it's like, this is the Apple II, like the Oculus is the Apple II. And, you know, if you go back and look at it wasn't until 81 when the PC came out that it really kind of exploded. So we're a couple of years away, but it's very, very clear what you ne…”
Dixon: Enterprise users may adopt virtual reality before gamers
“People, people just, this assumption that it's all going to be gamers, I think, is just, is highly, to me, is highly questionable, and it could very well be business users like this at first.”
Dixon: Traditional ad tech and banner ads will mostly go away
“Like this ad tech industry, unfortunately, I, you know, I think will mostly go away. Banner ads, et cetera. It will be Google. It will be things in streams.”
Chris Dixon: Television and sports programming will unbundle and move to mobile
“Video, you know, TV is going to move to the mobile phone. HBO has already gone unbundled. Sports is going to go unbundled.”
Dixon: The banner ad business model is non-viable and will collapse
“The decline of that very bad business model is going to Accelerate on mobile, because on mobile you simply can't fit all that stuff. It's a terrible, it's even a worse experience. I would wager, when you look at the click-through rates on mobile banner ads, it…”
Dixon: Enterprise applications will lead consumer adoption in wearable tech
“I think there's a reasonable chance that you'll see the corporate use cases leading Like, unlike what we've seen over the last 15 years in technology, which is the consumer has led the enterprise. You know, the stuff you have at home on your iPhone and Gmail i…”
Chris Dixon: Containers render virtual machines obsolete, though transition takes time
“It seems like one of these, it's a rare thing where it just seems like it's a no-brainer, dramatic improvement over virtual machines, and they're just, VMs are over. . I mean, it's gonna take a while.”
Dixon: Virtual reality will be a pervasive technology within five years
“So what so in five years, I think we were all believers, this is going to be a pervasive widespread technology.”
Dixon: Almost all smartphones will capture 3D imaging within two years
“I think within two years for phones, almost all smartphones will be able to take three to three D imaging.”
Dixon: Naval Ravikant's app coins post will be seen as prophetic in 5 years
“I predict that will be seen as a prophetic blog post in five years”
Dixon: Token models will become the dominant internet business model
“And we've now discovered this great business model, which I think will be the dominant business model of the internet and is the true kind of native business model of networks.”
Dixon: Crypto will reach mainstream adoption faster than early web
“I'm more optimistic about the crypto stuff happening sooner because it's software-based, meaning the hardware's already built out, and now we just need to like a few quick, you know, a few clever incentives and some nice software, and you suddenly have like, y…”
Dixon: The internet has reached peak centralization and will decentralize
“I think that that we're, I believe we're at sort of peak centralization, and we're going to see more and more interesting things happening, and there's sort of this kind of, you know, it's like a lot of things in life, like politics and, you know, fashion tren…”
Dixon: Stablecoin legislation will unlock bank adoption and accelerate network growth
“We're trying to get legislation, and that will, I think, further accelerate it, because you've got, essentially, You know, 99, think of it as a network effect, and you've got 90, probably five, 90, or high percent, or some percentage of the nodes on the networ…”
Dixon: AI regulation and copyright disputes will ultimately be settled by Congress
“I think ultimately, my view is ultimately this will play out in Congress.”
Dixon: Ethereum upgrade will 100x capacity and drop fees below a penny
“There's an Ethereum upgrade happening in three weeks, four, eight, four, four, which is going to Pro like basically a hundred X, the improvement of Ethereum L two's, which are the main way of scaling Ethereum today. And you get sort of sub penny transaction co…”
Dixon: Government control of money will be a major political debate soon
“I think money is very likely to be debated in the next five years, and CDBC in one formulation of it is kind of the main embodiment of, that'll be the main embodiment of that debate, right?”
Dixon: AI will cause current online identity systems to break down
“And everyone's supposed to do their own Turing test on every email they receive to see if it's real, which is not going to be sustainable. There probably isn't today, right? I mean, these LLMs are good enough to fake all of that voices, everything, right? So t…”
Dixon: Global smartphone users will grow to eight billion
“We've got, what is it, like three to four billion people with smartphones. That's going to go to eight billion.”
Dixon: Crypto will transform social networking by 2030
“This transformation will take a while, ah, we're the sort of, we're in the early stages, and so that's why I put 20, 30 in the title. But, ah, but I think all the pieces are in place, and we're on a clear path to get there over the next, next decade.”
Dixon: Three or four tech giants will control all AI training data
“And it's very likely in the current trajectory that we're going to end up with three or four companies that control all this data.”
Dixon: Layer-one blockchains take at least 12 months to get quality apps
“Even when you launch these new layer ones, I think it's probably, I don't know, at least 12 months, probably before you see, like, higher quality applications coming out.”
Dixon: Native internet money will emerge between 2023 and 2028
“And I think at some point, I think over the next five to 10 years, we'll have this sort of internet money, and it'll either be Ethereum or Bitcoin or something, or some stable coin or something else, but”
Dixon: Stablecoins Will Become Prominent Within Two Years, Driving Mainstream Adoption
“In my mind, this is one of the really interesting things that, that I think will likely start to become more prominent over the next year or two. And could unlock a whole new wave of kind of applications and just broader mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency.”