why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rigetti: $10M in quantum chip infrastructure rivals $4B classical supercomputers
“There's effectively sort of Cambrian explosion happening because companies can, you know, invest ten million dollars in manufacturing infrastructure and build individual chips that are close to rivaling the capacity of an entire supercomputer. And that superco…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rigetti: Quantum devices will perform calculations classical supercomputers never can
“And what it means is what appear to be rudimentary quantum mechanical devices can encode a tremendous amount of information and can be used to compute things that are physically impossible to compute, not only with today's supercomputers, but with any foreseea…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rigetti: A new 'Silicon Valley' will emerge around the quantum ecosystem
“There's going to be another Silicon Valley where the quantum ecosystem is, it kind of comes up.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2047
Rigetti: Quantum computers capable of breaking RSA encryption are 20-30 years away
“We're probably 20 to 30 years away from having a machine that would really be able to run Shore's algorithm on Wall Street. On practically relevant problem sizes. At some point in the future, quantum computers will be able to crack RSA encryption.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rigetti: Algorithmic understanding will become quantum computing's primary bottleneck
“And over the next few years, the quantum hardware that we're building is getting better at such a fast rate that we're reaching this point where the bottleneck is going to be understanding the best algorithms to run on those machines to get the most value out …”
Prediction Partly held up
Chad Rigetti: Neuromorphic chips will soon be in mobile handsets
“We're talking about neuromorphic chips in individual handsets being available soon for machine learning.”
Assertion Supported
Rigetti: Adding a single qubit doubles a quantum computer's performance
“And with a quantum computer, if you have a hundred qubits and you add one more, you don't have a one percent performance increase, you double the performance. And that persists independent of the memory size. So every quantum bit you add to the system doubles,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rigetti: Quantum software engineers will expand significantly within five years
“Over the next five years or so, I think the number of folks who identify as quantum engineers or quantum software engineers is going to go from approximately zero today to a meaningful number, and that the progress on that front will really accelerate.”
Assertion Partly supported
Rigetti: 10nm Semiconductor Fabs Cost Tens of Billions
“The cost of building the manufacturing infrastructure, the cost of putting up a fab, To build technology at the 10 nanometer, 20 nanometer scale is, is extremely large. We're talking tens of billions of dollars now to get to the latest generation of technology…”
Assertion Supported
Rigetti: Classical supercomputers cannot simulate the exact structure of 50-atom molecules
“A small molecule with something like 50 atoms is, is, is almost impossible to compute the exact molecular structure, or the exact electronic structure.”
Assertion Supported
Rigetti: Only one or two groups had demonstrated superconducting qubits during PhD start
“When I started my PhD in I think there's one or two groups in the world that had ever built and demonstrated a superconducting qubit with a measurable coherence time.”