why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Nearly every startup will integrate cryptocurrency within ten years
“And now, you know, I think the same thing is going to happen with cryptocurrency where in five or 10 years, pretty much every startup that gets created, it's going to use the internet, it's going to use AI, and it's also going to use some form of cryptocurrenc…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: One billion people will use open finance within 20 years
“There's a billion people using the open financial system on a daily basis, and, you know, I think that could be done in five years, like, without a lot of hard work, it could be 10 years, 20 years.”
Prediction Held up
Armstrong: Bitcoin-native applications will create multi-billion dollar companies
“So, these are very small today, but I think in the future some of these will end up being many multi-billion dollar companies and systems.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Bitcoin will be the sole currency used on the blockchain
“I think Bitcoin will be the currency that, that everyone ends up using on the blockchain, and they probably don't quite understand what they're saying when they say that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Bitcoin usage will invert to 80% payments and 20% speculation
“And I think over time what'll happen is that those two percentages will shift. The 80% will end up becoming the 20% speculative asset, and it'll be 80% payment network actually happening.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Mainstream merchants like Starbucks will eventually accept Bitcoin
“Now, someday, if the world, if Bitcoin becomes more and more popular, like we all think it will then yes, even the Starbucks across the street will be accepting Bitcoin, because they still don't want to pay two percent, they'd rather pay a fraction of one perc…”
Prediction Held up
Armstrong: Crypto won't have one dominant protocol, but several competing standards
“I think, ah, you know, now I think of it as a slightly different mental model, so it's not TCP IP that's one protocol to rule them all. There's gonna be a couple of these, you know, like Visa, MasterCard, Discover, or GIF, JPEG, PNG, if you wanna use an intern…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Next wave of crypto adoption comes from earning, not buying
“So I think most of those people in the world, they don't have, you know, disposable income to kind of invest in risky new technologies. They're going to get crypto for the first time by, you know, completing some task or job because they want to earn money or,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Digital natives will value online identities over physical locations
“And I think it'll flip at some point where it's like this mentality shift of, you know, am I, are you first is, you know, people have all different types of identities, right? Is my primary identity you know, the school I went to, like, you know, this military…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Future generations will never own traditional checkbook bank accounts
“There's going to be this whole generation of kids that grow up, and their phone is the only bank account they've ever known. They're never going to have a bank account in the way we think of it with a checkbook or something like that”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Developing world's first bank accounts will be mobile crypto wallets
“And we think a whole generation of kids and people in the developing world will actually grow up, and their very first quote unquote bank account will actually be a digital currency wallet on their cell phone.”
Prediction Held up
Armstrong plans to scale Coinbase and run a public company
“For me, I actually want to be a CEO, run a business, have it be enormous, like, I'd like to run a public company someday”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Open financial networks will expand global economic freedom and property rights
“We think that's going to bring about all kinds of benefits for the world, you know, a lot of innovation, quality of opportunity, economic freedom, strong property rights for people all over the world.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Bitcoin mainstream adoption will be gradual, not a single breakthrough
“Is there going to be some moment where bitcoin just suddenly is mainstream? No, I don't think so. I think it's going to be, you know, a series of lots of small things that happen over time.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Bitcoin's sidechain upgrade mechanism ensures long-term survival
“It's a very high-risk upgrade because a lot of those things haven't been tested at scale before, and so it's really awesome to see Bitcoin have a mechanism for upgrades essentially built into it, which gives me a lot more confidence that it'll survive the test…”