The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Janeway: Non-traditional late-stage tech investments will end in painful correction
“Now, when you see investors, hedge funds, mutual funds, paying premium prices, To buy illiquidity, to buy securities with no liquidity and with no governance rights. In the private market. The only thing you know is when it ends, it will end painfully.”
Janeway: Startup Quality Inevitably Declines When Cheap Capital Is Plentiful
“Again, the people on the other side of the market aren't morons, so the quality inevitably will decline. Inevitably.”
Janeway: Billions wasted in mid-2000s VC nanotech and cleantech investments
“Back in the mid-aughties some billions of dollars were wasted in venture guys investing in nanotechnology. Venture guys investing in science for ultimately Clean tech opportunities, but that were way upstream, that took much too long, much too much money, and …”
Janeway: Private tech bubble collapse won't threaten the broader economic system
“Now the good news about that is that when it bursts, the, some of these companies that have learned nothing about business discipline will disappear, and the people who have invested in them will lose their money, maybe their jobs, that usually happens as well…”
Janeway: Only five out of 85 current unicorns will become great companies
“Out of those 85 unicorns, there are five great companies. And by the way, that's the necessary waste of trial and error.”
Janeway: Only four quarters between 2005 and 2019 saw 20+ venture IPOs
“Since then, we've had all of about four quarters in 15 years when there have been as many as 20 venture capital backed IPOs.”
Janeway: Major investment banks require $100M+ IPOs to hit fee minimums
“To get the attention of the global major dealer banks, you've got to be offering them a transaction on which they can make at least five million dollars, and you start doing the arithmetic on the economics of an IPO, and you're up in the nine figures to do an …”
Janeway: Cloud and open source drop software launch costs to near zero
“Open source software, web services from the cloud, which means that the cost in terms of time and money of launching a new service Has declined asymptotically to zero. Not building it out into a full business, but launching it.”
Janeway: Venture-backed IPOs averaged 30 per quarter from 1980 to 2005
“From 1980, this is my own data, this data published in peer-reviewed journals, from 1980 to 2005, The average number of venture-backed IPOs per quarter was about 30, with a standard deviation of 10.”