why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yahya: Current blockchain governance systems will likely devolve into plutocracies
“Today's governance systems and sort of blockchains and crypto networks, the way that they exist today will likely devolve into plutocracy simply because the mechanisms for vote buying are so effective as you've described.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yahya: Stablecoin adoption will trigger widespread DeFi adoption
“We believe that that'll likely lead to this cascading Sort of trend of adoption, because once stablecoins become a more kind of mainstay of the way that the financial system works, that opens the door for a lot of the other more advanced and futuristic ideas t…”
Prediction Held up
Yahya: Federal stablecoin regulation will likely pass in 2025
“We strongly believe it likely, it'll likely happen this year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yahya: Stablecoin regulation will commoditize Tether and USDC issuers
“It will, it'll, to some extent, commoditize the issuance layer because it'll be easier for new issuers To emerge and create their own stable coins that, that are also user, you USD denominated to the point that those new stable coins are somewhat fungible and …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yahya: AI direct answers will eliminate web advertising models
“And that entire business model goes away if you just have an AI that just gives you the answer that you're looking for.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yahya: Decentralized systems will always be costlier and slower than centralized
“Decentralized systems will always be more expensive and less performant than centralized ones. There's just an inherent trade off there, and there's an inherent cost to decentralizing a computer system. And so it won't, Replace everything. There will be applic…”
Prediction Held up
Yahya: Decentralized storage will not drastically cut costs for most uses
“So the reason that we need decentralized storage networks is not because they're going to reduce the price of storage by orders of magnitude. At least for most kinds of files and for most use cases, I don't believe that that'll be the case.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yahya: Crypto innovation wave may eclipse the current internet startup ecosystem
“We see this as the foundation for another golden wave of innovation on the internet that may be even larger than the current startup ecosystem on the internet today.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yahya: Financial Web3 use cases will precede consumer crypto adoption
“It's now much more clear that the kind of the more financial use cases are likely to happen first. Those will act as a legitimizing force for the rest of the space, and then the consumer use cases, which we still believe in, Will take longer.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yahya: Crypto will not solve fundamental governance problems, only find workarounds
“These problems have become replicated in crypto as well, and they are, therefore, like, fundamentally difficult problems that have been unsolved for millennia. So, so it's not as if crypto will solve any of that. It'll just have to figure out the right mechani…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yahya: Web3 innovation will accelerate faster than previous computing waves
“The kind of innovation that we're likely to see is, is just, It's combinatorial in nature, and likely more explosive, and will accelerate more quickly than it has in previous, for previous waves of computing and previous waves of technology.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yahya: Crypto networks with lower security than Bitcoin will emerge
“So certain blockchains, like say, like the Bitcoin meme is that Bitcoin is fully decentralized and is extremely secure, secure to the point at which it'll be resilient even against attacks by nation states like China. But there are applications out there that …”