The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 50 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Rampell: Traditional banks will never be able to build software
“Well, and that's the thing, it's like, you know, software, like I'm very confident that all of the banks Cannot build software, will not be able to build software, will not build software.”
Rampell: Advanced telepresence will crash real estate prices
“The real estate prices would crash, I guess, that, that would probably be the biggest one, because location, location, location would be shrunk down to, like, location doesn't matter.”
Rampell: Zendesk legacy per-seat revenue drops to zero without pricing pivot
“Because the per seat pricing, like if Zendesk said, we're just gonna charge you per seat per month for the current thing, you know, never make a change to our code or our pricing, that revenue stream is a hundred percent going to zero.”
Rampell: AI adoption will not eliminate a large number of human jobs
“You're gonna hire a lot of AI. You're not going to get rid of a lot of humans.”
Rampell: NetSuite and Intuit will win big in AI monetization
“I'm very, very bullish on incumbents. I hope I can say that because I don't think that, I think NetSuite is going to figure out 15 different ways to monetize with AI. I think that QuickBooks, Intuit has this goldmine on their hands where they're just gonna sta…”
Rampell: An AI-native startup will build a better CRM and displace Salesforce
“Somebody is going to out Salesforce, Salesforce, not for the hostages that they have, but is going to build the greenfield version of Salesforce because how is that possible? Everybody hates using Salesforce. There's a new company that's going to do this bette…”
Rampell: Adobe and Zendesk will sell fewer software seats due to AI
“Is Adobe gonna sell as many seats if now you don't have to hire as many graphics designers? Or is Zendesk going to sell as many seats if the, Software just answers all the queries. Like, the answer is no.”
Rampell: AI startups face forced consolidation due to unsustainable loss-leader pricing
“So I think that will probably play out the same way here, because you just can't have a market where you have everybody lost leading and nobody's big enough to get any kind of scale effects.”
Rampell: AI software will make human workers ten times more productive
“Largely what it means is that people are going to be like 10 times more productive where I can't hire anybody to do this job, but I can hire AI to do it.”
Alex Rampell predicts ChatGPT purchasing execution will steal Google's search monetization
“If chat GPT gets, it gets that going, which I think is one of their top priorities, then like that's going to really steal the monetization engine bike. From Google.”
Rampell: Workday could triple revenue by automating active HR tasks
“Workday could probably triple their revenue if they start doing this because they're already the system of record.”
Rampell: Costco's membership-based retail business model is immune to AI
“It is a very, very unique business model that is somewhat of a, it will stand the test of time and I think it's AI proof.”
Rampell: Salesforce risks losing revenue or 10x-ing depending on AI transition
“So that's why, you know, Salesforce, it's a two hundred billion dollar plus public company. If they don't do this right, they could lose all of their revenue or most of it. If they do it really well, they can 10 X the revenue.”
Alex Rampell: AI Software Prices Will Inexorably Fall Below Human Labor Costs
“I can't see a scenario where prices are more expensive than humans, or where prices don't just keep going down.”
Rampell: Repatriated corporate cash will fund buybacks, not innovation
“Exactly. It's probably going to go to buybacks M&A and dividends. And a lot of that is just kind of like reshuffling as opposed to actually building anything new.”
Rampell: US will eventually cap credit card interchange fees
“I think it's going to happen in the U.S. Eventually.”
Fintech startups will unbundle specific services rather than replace mega-banks directly
“You're probably not going to see somebody who's going to take over and take on Chase directly. It's more of, you'll see minor things like Lending Club that attack little bits and pieces of its business.”
Software analyzing direct bank data will outperform traditional FICO credit scores
“But the main thing that's going to change this is the software to identify, okay, we think that you are a positive quality payer. We see what's going on in your bank account. We see things that are just much, much better than what FICA can provide to us.”
Rampell: Consumers will increasingly buy and sell homes directly with companies
“In the future, or even increasingly the present, you're gonna buy your house from, or sell your house to a company.”
Rampell: Tech platforms will displace checking accounts as banking's entry point
“So the way that I think about this is that tech companies are actually becoming the entry points to banking. It's no longer the checkbook or the checking account. I mean, that's still very, very important, but I think the balance of power is going to change he…”
Rampell: Middle-layer payment processors face disruption from smartphone wallets
“The middle section here, this cloud section is in a lot more trouble today. Or it will be in a lot more trouble as digital wallet usage continues to proliferate.”
Rampell: Businesses will not replace Intuit's QuickBooks despite AI panic
“Nobody's gonna get rid of QuickBooks.”
Rampell: Software incumbents like SAP and Adobe will grow stronger with AI
“Bill.com is gonna be a stronger business, Or SAP is going to be a stronger business, or Adobe is going to be a stronger business because of AI.”
Rampell: a16z Will Invest in Non-AI Businesses Made Viable by AI
“The other thing that you're gonna start seeing us do is there are a lot of non-AI companies that now work because of AI.”
Rampell: Consumers will adopt automated agentic purchasing
“Allow for automatic action on information. Like, people will do that, because we have observed that behavior today.”
Rampell: Extreme dynamic pricing faces regulatory and backlash hurdles
“I think probably you're going to run into regulatory challenges with that. Or certainly you will run into like very, very high levels of unpopularity with your Or customer base, but people have tried this. But generally it's hard to get away with.”
Rampell: AI will automate deal hunting for all SKU products
“All of that will be automated away or automated for the benefit of the consumer, if and only if you have something where you have determined the SKU or the UPC.”
Rampell: Wells Fargo will match mobile banking startup apps within a decade
“I'm sure that there's some mobile bank startup that's going to have a much more beautiful app than Wells Fargo's, but Wells Fargo within the next seven to 10 years will come up with something as good, and they've got that distribution.”
Alex Rampell predicts bank tellers will be obsolete within 15 years
“You know, no, no disrespect to the profession of the bank teller, but it's probably not one that's going to be around in 50 years, much less 15.”
Fee transparency and market competition will lower payday loan interest rates
“If you make it super clear and super transparent, you're not gonna run into that problem, and if you have the law being around, ah, clearness and transparency and you have lots of competition. That's what will bring the rates down.”
Alex Rampell predicts US zero interest rate policy will last 8-9 years
“So and I think we're going to remain in, go to year eight and year nine. That's my own personal opinion.”
Rampell: Real estate agents will operate under corporate tech platforms
“And again, all of this, it doesn't mean that real estate agents go away. It just means that it's going to be under the rubric of a company.”
Rampell: Banking faces an Amazon moment as physical branches become anachronistic
“We really think the Amazon moment is coming to banking, and I'll talk a little bit more about why and how, but a lot of it is really, it's predicated or it's related to this idea of the physical location being a little bit more of an anachronism than a buildin…”
Rampell: The "Amazon of banking" will operate with zero physical branches
“And you can imagine an Amazon of banking will require none.”
Rampell: Digital wallets will develop dedicated app store ecosystems
“If the app store exists for the digital wallet, which I believe it will”
Rampell: Digital wallets will enable one-tap automated provider switching
“The same thing I believe will happen with the digital wallet where you download an app, maybe it's a car insurance app, and what the car insurance app says is, hey, give me access to everything in your digital wallet, and here's why I need it. I need access to…”
Rampell: Apple and Google will fully open their mobile wallet platforms
“Apple and Google need to open up their respective wallets, but I think they will, because Apple and Google, if they want to build a powerful position and actually truly have the mobile wallet not just be a payment type that has three credit cards in it, But ac…”
Rampell: ChatGPT will never get access to proprietary enterprise contracts
“They are never going to get 50 old Deloitte contracts.”
Rampell: Traditional stock clearinghouses will be obsolete within 10 years
“Hopefully when we fast forward 10 years, this whole system will be antiquated and we'll have something much, much, much better”
Rampell: AI platforms will make marketing attribution harder to untangle
“And this is only going to get more complicated in the AI world, where, like, it might be the same thing, where it's like, Justine might have researched on Reddit, saw the Super Bowl, like, did all of these things, Asked a question on ChatGPT and then clicked p…”
Rampell: Human-only skills like relationship building will surge in value
“On the one thing that I think AI cannot do and in fact, if anything, it kind of commoditizes, like if you have an AI sales rep, like Salesforce, why do I need seats for salespeople if AI is doing selling, but AI cannot build a relationship with somebody over g…”
Rampell: Hundreds of vertical service marketplaces will expand the economy
“I think you'll see hundreds of these that will each tackle different problems. And I think this can substantially grow the economy because you're competing with nothing.”
Alex Rampell: Itemized digital receipts would drive massive business traveler adoption
“And even if I pay with my phone can't receive the itemized information of what I just purchased. And that would be a big game changer. I mean, for the entire business traveler segment that like people would use it just for that.”
Alex Rampell: Cash will inevitably disappear except for black market transactions
“Cash will go away. It seems almost inevitable except for like, you know, black market activities, perhaps.”
Rampell: Payment Ads Will Shift From Banners to Value-Add Offers
“I definitely think that advertising will play a different role, but it's not banner ads. It's not click ads. It's actually, ah, things of genuine value and benefit to consumers”
Rampell: Full-stack models will massively expand the real estate tech market
“A lot of capital has been exploring this space, which allows for just much, much more ambition. So if you were to build Lyft 20 years ago, it would have been a software product that had been sold to taxi companies or taxi dispatch firms. And today they decided…”
Rampell: Banks will not compete with private fix-and-flip lenders
“So private lenders like Lending Home and Pierce Street do that, and banks aren't going to compete with them.”
Rampell: Internet-connected cars like Teslas will sell personalized insurance directly
“One of the really cool things about the new cars like the Teslas that have built in, ah, three G antennas because they're internet connected, is you could actually imagine your next car selling you insurance, because all the information that you need is actual…”