The Ledger
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Hefets: US home prices will decline 10% to 15% by Q1 2023
“Our view at Divi is that we're gonna start to see heading into Q-one year-on-year declines in home prices across Economist. That is likely to be somewhere around 10 to 15% year-on-year home price declines.”
Hefets: Housing downturn will not be as extreme as 2008 crisis
“So I don't think that we're going to see something as extreme as the, that last housing crisis.”
Hefets: The housing downturn will wipe out gains from 2020 to 2022
“What I do think is that we are going to wipe out some of the gains that were made in the last two to three years.”
Hefets: 80% of Americans cannot afford a home at current mortgage rates
“Based off of our 7.15% average 30 year fixed rate mortgage and then based off of an average home price of 400,000 dollars, 400,000 dollars, which is the average home price in, in the U.S. Only 20%, 20% of Americans, based off the median income, ah, at differen…”
Hefets: Over 50% of US homes hold 50% or greater equity
“There is right now over 50% of homes have 50% or greater equity in the property.”
Hefetz: Rising FICO requirements exclude 20% of U.S. consumers from mortgages
“We've gone from having a six 90 average FICO for mortgages up to about a seven 40 average FICO today. While this maybe doesn't seem like a tremendous jump, it actually cuts out about 20% of US consumers, so it had a pretty big impact.”
Hefetz: Mortgage underwriting rules remain fundamentally unchanged since the 1940s
“I found that those underwriting requirements are fundamentally the same requirements that we have today.”
Hefets: US real estate transaction volume has dropped 20% year-over-year
“Transaction volume is a down right now about 20% year on year.”
Hefetz: 1930s federal interventions boosted U.S. homeownership by 20 percentage points
“We saw about a jump in 20% of, in the rate of home ownership over time.”
Hefetz: Millennial homeownership rate sits at around 37%
“So this chart is the rate of home ownership on a constant age basis, and what you can see is that millennials today have a home ownership rate of about 37%.”
Hefetz: First-time homebuyers now make up only one-third of housing offers
“First-time homebuyers used to be about 50% of the offers that got put out. Today, it's only about a third.”
Hefetz: 76% of first-time homebuyers put down under 20%
“Even more depressing is when first-time homebuyers do put offers on their house, 76% of the time they have to put less than the recommended 20% down payment.”
Hefetz: U.S. starter home inventory fell nearly 35% from 2013 to 2019
“But if you look at the decline in the 150,000 dollar price tier, you can see that the decline was almost 35%, which was greater than the decline we saw in 300,000 dollar homes and 500,000 dollar homes.”