The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

4statements match

3resolved → 0open predictions → 1held up → 1didn’t hold up →

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Hefets: US home prices will decline 10% to 15% by Q1 2023

“Our view at Divi is that we're gonna start to see heading into Q-one year-on-year declines in home prices across Economist. That is likely to be somewhere around 10 to 15% year-on-year home price declines.”

Adena Hefets Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 17:22 Easing the Housing Crisis by Building Better Tools

Prediction Held up

Hefets: Housing downturn will not be as extreme as 2008 crisis

“So I don't think that we're going to see something as extreme as the, that last housing crisis.”

Adena Hefets Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 19:50 Easing the Housing Crisis by Building Better Tools

Prediction Partly held up

Hefets: The housing downturn will wipe out gains from 2020 to 2022

“What I do think is that we are going to wipe out some of the gains that were made in the last two to three years.”

Adena Hefets Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 19:57 Easing the Housing Crisis by Building Better Tools

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Hefets: Post-COVID population migration to new cities will stick long term

“We've seen migration to new cities that I think is going to actually stick, right?”

Adena Hefets Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 19:40 Easing the Housing Crisis by Building Better Tools

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