why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Back: Everyone agrees Bitcoin needs a block size increase
“If we need to increase the block size, which I think everybody agrees with at this point in time.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Back: Raising Bitcoin block size to 1GB would cause network failure
“If we jumped up the block size to a gigabyte now, security would fail, the network would probably fail.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Back: Three or four colluding mining companies could influence Bitcoin policy
“You know, it's probably the case that you could, you know, If you could get collaboration from three, four companies in various parts of the world, you could start to apply some policy influence to Bitcoin.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Back: 99% of Bitcoin transactions occur off the main blockchain
“Estimates are something like currently 99% of them are happening off the blockchain.”
Prediction Held up
Back: Lightning Network could scale Bitcoin capacity up to 10,000x
“There's also right now quite active work on this sort of Bitcoin enhancement called lightning, which is a best described as a kind of right caching layer for Bitcoin, which might scale Bitcoin by a factor of a thousand or 10,000.”
Assertion Partly supported
Back: Bitcoin soft forks require 95% miner consensus to activate
“These things don't activate until 95% of the miners are upgraded, so, and there's a long window of warning that the upgrade is happening, six months or so.”
Assertion Partly supported
Back: Bitcoin blocks are half full, half under one dollar
“The blocks are maybe a third to a half full on average, and if you look at, if you analyze the transactions in the block, about half of them are under a dollar.”
Prediction Held up
Back: Lightning Network implementations will yield results within six months
“There's a GitHub and a development mailing list, and there are now three, I think maybe four companies who've come forward with implementations of the early stages of it, and we're hopeful that we'll see results from that within the six-month time frame.”