why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Patel: Huawei Sourced 2.9 Million TSMC Chips via Shell Entities
“They were able to acquire three million chips, 2.9 million chips from TSMC through these other entities, right? Roughly five hundred million dollars worth of orders”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: 4x annual compute scaling will hit physical limits within five years
“For maybe five more years, you could have, you could keep increasing the share of energy that we're spending on training data centers or the fraction of TSMC's leading edge nodes. Wafers that we dedicate to making AI chips, or even the fraction of GDP that we …”
Opinion
Gallagher: CCP control of TSMC would allow global economic blackmail
“There's no way we can just let the CCP come to control TSMC's production capacity or take it offline or destroy it. It would hand them the ability to economically blackmail the entire world, dictating who gets to participate in the modern economy and who doesn…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Rao: TSMC will partner with Unconventional AI for chip manufacturing
“TSMC is absolutely going to be a partner forward, you know, met with them recently and, you know, we want to work closely with them to make sure we get what we need, get fast turnaround times to prototype and all of that.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Intel is ahead of Samsung on 2nm process technology
“They think, I think industry generally agrees that Intel is further along you know, the sort of the two nanometer class process technology than Samsung is but both are way behind TSMC.”
Assertion Partly supported
Patel: Huawei surpassed Apple in TSMC orders and market share before bans
“Yeah, well, like, I mean, like, every other, like, Huawei's beat Apple, right? They passed Apple up in TSMC orders, they passed Apple up in phone market share not in the US, but, like, in many parts of the world. Before the bans came down, and then even now th…”
Assertion Contradicted
Cass: TSMC is slowing Japan investment to accelerate US expansion
“We've already seen TSMC as one example, in fact, say that they are slowing investment in Japan to invest More quickly in the U S”
Assertion Supported
Arizona launched a semiconductor manufacturing apprenticeship program with TSMC
“Governor Katie Hobbs has introduced this big apprenticeship. Program, where they're helping to train new semiconductor manufacturing employees alongside folks who have come over from TMC.”