The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
OpenAI o3 model completes 40% of internal research engineer pull requests
“That's another data point, by the way, from this was from the O three system card. They showed a jump from like low to mid single digits to roughly 40% of PRs actually checked in by Research engineers at OpenAI that the model could do. So prior to O three, not…”
Nathan Labenz Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 38:26 Is AI Slowing Down? Nathan Labenz Says We're Asking the Wrong Question
Assertion Supported
Labenz: GPT-4.5 achieved 65% accuracy on SimpleQA versus o3's 50%
“The O-three class of models got about a 50% on that benchmark, and GPT 4.5 popped up to like 65%. So, in other words, it basically, of the things that were not known to the previous generation of models, it picked up a third of them.”
Nathan Labenz Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 8:58 Is AI Slowing Down? Nathan Labenz Says We're Asking the Wrong Question
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