why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Obsidian will gain ground on Notion due to local data
“They might want desktop versions with local data so they can, like, for example Obsidian is gonna become more of a contender versus Notion because the markdown files, there's a network effect on data. When it's local and you can analyze the whole thing, like l…”
Opinion
Balaji Srinivasan: AI cannot replace distribution moats, disproving the SaaS apocalypse
“I don't think so, because I think if they're smart, then the thing that AI can't do is distribution, right? So if you have Notion, you have Figma, you have, you know, Replit and so on and so forth, you've got all these people and Boom. You can ship with AI fas…”
Insight
Nat Eliason: You can delete 99% of your digital notes without consequence
“But what you will probably find is that you can delete 95 to 99% of everything you have in Evernote or Notion or whatever and never feel that pain for the rest of your life.”
Insight
Nat Eliason: The software used to store book highlights does not matter
“The medium that I organize those highlights in doesn't seem to matter because I had them in text files at one point, I had them in Evernote, I had them in Notion, I had them in Rome, I had them in back in Notion, right?”
Opinion
Nat Eliason: Organizing digital notes does not improve writing or happiness
“And I think the false promise that many of us Believe or have bought into or whatever is that if you organize information, you will write better articles. You will make more money. You will be happier. You will get all of these benefits from it, right? And tha…”
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: Half of Notion's New ARR Is Driven by AI Features
“Notion actually announced that now they think half of their new ARR is driven by AI-first features, which is very cool.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amble: Notion users are more tech-savvy builders than Salesforce users
“Notion users tend, you know, all things being equal, are more, I'd say, tech-savvy and more agentic as builders”
Disclosure
Lingelbach uses Claude with GitHub and Linear as an AI product manager
“One of these really exciting use cases of AI is like automating a lot of, you know, these processes that you have to go through as a founder. Like, I recently started using, like, Claude with, like, linear, and Notion, and GitHub integration as, like, a micro …”