why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Claude Code and Cursor have surpassed GitHub Copilot in ARR
“If you look at the revenue ARR chart, it's like, Cloud code in, like, three months has surpassed them, and, like, cursor, you know, easily surpassed them, and then, like, even, like, companies like Replin or, like, and Windsurf slash Cognition are, like, gonna…”
Assertion Supported
Casado: Early AI coding tools reached $400M to $600M in ARR
“The first kind of monetized AI app was code, right? It was Copilot, and so Microsoft had invested a ton of money and matured the market with Copilot, with VS Code, and so everybody knew it. It's just, like, the models weren't quite ready then, and so you had, …”
Disclosure
Wang: a16z portfolio CTOs reported 10% to 15% AI productivity gains
“Last year, it was notable that when we asked, hey, CTOs across 24 portfolio companies how much is AI actually impacting your productivity? And the answer across the board was pretty much 10 to 15%. We're all using GitHub Copilot.”
Opinion
Bornstein: Cursor is outperforming GitHub Copilot in AI coding adoption
“And I think companies like Cursor have just done a much better job with that now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Haber: Large financial institutions are adopting AI developer tools like Cursor
“Many of these institutions are beginning to adopt products like Cursor or, you know, even GitHub Copilot or a broader ecosystem of kind of AI products in their employee base, and people are seeing the productivity gains.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Strange: GitHub Copilot boosts engineer productivity by 30% to 100%
“But if you look at GitHub copilots, depending on the engineer, that's 30 to 100% increased productivity.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
GitHub Copilot's primary benefit is keeping developers in a flow state
“The thing that it really does in our observation with developers more than anything else is it helps keep them in flow state. Longer than they otherwise would.”