why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Casado: Microsoft's initial Copilot product was actually created by OpenAI
“I learned recently it was created by OpenAI, so that kind of explains it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Strange: Every white-collar worker will eventually have an AI copilot
“I believe that every white-collar worker eventually is going to have a copilot, and some of those roles will be replaced by agents.”
Opinion
Horowitz: Fully replacing human software developers requires a major AI breakthrough
“I'm getting a little more Skeptical about the distance between, like, what we can do now with co-pilot to complete human elimination just in terms of the technologies that we've seen. Like, that last that last mile is a long mile, bro. It is not We're going to…”
Assertion Supported
Masad: Replit uses three distinct AI models while Copilot uses one
“Copilot uses a single model, rapidly uses like three different models of different sizes. So the smallest models as the model, you know, over your shoulder, continuously giving you suggestions, then a medium sized model to do the transformations and things lik…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rabois: Microsoft is losing its lead in AI coding to startups
“They started with an advantage in coding, Copilot, etc. They're losing that.”
Disclosure
Truell: Founders knew developers would switch editors because Copilot converted them
“So at the time, it's not super controversial now, but at the time, people just thought it was very weird to do an editor. Whether it was a fork or not a fork they said you can't get people to switch their code editor. They're too tied to it, which we knew was …”
Insight
Strange: Successful compliance startups use AI copilots rather than autonomous agents
“Smarter entrepreneurs are getting around this in two different ways. One it's much more of a co-pilot versus a full angel versus a full agent. And then they're able to Test enough edge cases around that the likelihood of hallucination is very, very, very low b…”
Assertion Supported
Bornstein: Copilot was the dominant AI coding tool in early 2024
“Now the leading coding harness was Copilot by like a mile, right? This was like the consensus thing.”