why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ghodsi: Reports of $100M AI compensation packages are largely false
“I don't think anyone's getting a hundred million dollar offers. You know, I mean, yes, there is like, One, you know, character that AI and so on, but I didn't think it's actually true.”
Insight
LLM hallucination is a feature, not a bug, for AI companions
“Like you want to launch something that's a doctor, It's going to be a lot slower because you want to be really, really, really careful about not providing like false information, but friend, you can do like really fast. Like it's just entertainment. It makes t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI companion entertainment is ready for immediate explosive adoption
“If I, like, I want to push this technology ahead fast, like, that's what I want to go with, because like, A, it's, you know, it's ready for an explosion, like right now, not like in five years when we solve all the problems, but like, now.”
Insight
Entertainment is a $2T industry built on imaginary friends
“Entertainment is like this two trillion dollar a year industry. And like the dirty secret is that entertainment Is imaginary friends that don't know you exist.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI will improve massively from scaling without new breakthroughs
“And without any breakthroughs, like it's going to get like massively better as everyone just Kind of scales up to use it, and there will be more breakthroughs because now, you know, like all the scientists in the world are like working on like making this stuf…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Character.AI aims for AGI by building consumer products at scale
“Our goal is to be like an AGI company and a product first company. And the way to do that is by picking the right product that forces us to work on the right things, things that generalize, make the model smarter, make it, like, do what people, you know, what …”
Assertion Supported
The average Character.ai user logs nearly 300 sessions per month
“Character AI has the average user close to 300 sessions per month, which again is like 10 sessions per day.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lai: Subscriptions will become default business model for AI games
“My guess is that companies like mid journey or care, like character AI have been able to address this with a subscription model. And so basically every power user pays for their own sort of like inference costs, so to speak. And we could see that subscription …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Character.ai will launch a significantly smarter model by late 2023
“We're going to launch something, tens of IQ points smarter hopefully by the by the end of the year.”
Disclosure
Character.ai's model cost $2M to train, now $500k
“The model we're serving now, we, you know, cost us about, like, two million dollars worth of compute cycles to train last year, and could probably repeat it for, like, half a million now.”
Assertion Supported
Justine Moore: Three times more U.S. teens have used Character.ai than Claude
“Yeah, there's I think it was three times more U.S. Teens have ever used character AI than have used Claude.”
Opinion
Immerman: Gen AI search offers a much better UX than Google
“If you think about the Google experience as it is today, it's just a long list of links. And the first few are sponsored. They're ads. And I, as a user, when I make a query on Google, I then need to make the decision. I have to sift through the information on …”
Assertion Supported
Three new AI companionship apps enter a16z's Top 100 list
“Three new companionship names. So, Juicy Chat, Joy, and Our Dream all made the list, alongside a bunch of others that have made the list before. So, Character was the biggest name, Janitor, Spicy Chat, Polly Buzz, Crush On, Adot, and Candy AI were all on this …”
Assertion Supported
Moore: Midjourney and Character.ai launched before ChatGPT in 2022
“Actually, Midjourney and Character AI both came out before ChatGBT, which I think a lot of people don't know, but there was maybe these early niche communities of early adopters that were using both of those products in the summer and the fall of twenty-twenty…”
Assertion Supported
The average session duration on Character.ai exceeds five minutes
“An average session for a company like Character is probably gonna be upwards of five minutes long.”