why aren't all 31 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Younis: Physical AI companies could become larger than digital AI companies
“In this intelligence revolution, The companies that impact the physical world might actually be bigger than the companies that impact the digital world.”
Disclosure
Younis: Applied Intuition holds hundreds of petabytes of proprietary AI data
“We already have hundreds of petabytes of data.”
Disclosure
Younis: Applied Intuition operates one of world's largest data collection fleets
“I mean, I think we have one of the largest data collection fleets on the planet, frankly speaking.”
Disclosure
Ludwig: Applied Intuition deploys smaller models on-board for real-time safety
“So we can have very large models, and we do have very large models that are used In the off-board environment. But when, once you go on board, all of those constraints are very real. And now we need to train a much smaller model that has these safety constrain…”
Opinion
Ludwig: Physical AI drives the global economy far more than digital AI
“Digital AI, of course, is building software and optimizing ads and creating videos. That's all interesting and good, but really where you talk about the global economy, that's physical AI.”
Disclosure
Younis: 70% of Applied Intuition's business is non-automotive
“Automotive is like, 30% of our business, so 70% already is non-automotive.”
Disclosure
Yudis: Applied Intuition's defense autonomy code is 90% identical to commercial
“The autonomy system that we have running, let's say, on a defense, you know, vehicle, let's say, it's a troop mover or a tank or something like that, It's like, 90% similar to what we're doing on the, you know, on the commercial side, on the, ah, trucking side…”
Insight
Yudis: Defense-only software vendors lack rigorous commercial market benchmarking
“And I think if you're only serving sometimes a DOD, you sometimes don't get that commercial benchmark.”
Opinion
Schmidt: Applied Intuition operates permanently as a lighthouse sales business
“There are certain companies, I think that actually do just stay lighthouse the entire time. And like, that would be like, I'm trying to think of like the best example might be like applied to tuition in our portfolio. Like there's, there is a very, you know, s…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Younis: Physical AI development tools will evolve into integrated agentic platforms
“We think the same thing's gonna happen in the physical world.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Younis: Applied Intuition works globally everywhere except China
“We work with everybody minus we don't have an office in China, but really everyone else on the globe.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Younis: Applied Intuition holds $1B in capital sitting in the bank
“Our kind of a you know, claim to fame is we've raised over about a billion dollars in the company's history. All that is sitting in the bank”
Disclosure
Younis: Applied Intuition powers autonomous freight trucks for Isuzu in Japan
“We run self-driving trucks right now in Japan. They carry commercial loads. They're, you know, they're safety drivers there, but they're, Autonomously running. And, but you won't know that because the brand is Isuzu.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Younis: Vehicle OEMs will become a minor part of Applied Intuition's base
“And I think if you fast forward another 10, 20 years even the manufacturers themselves as a customer base will be a small amount.”
Insight
Younis: Senior software leadership accelerates technology procurement speed
“Inside applied, we have this saying, which is like the more senior the software people in an organization, the faster that acquisition happens because then they're not actually kind of delegating that work.”
Disclosure
Younis: Commercial technology development subsidizes Applied Intuition's defense business
“What we're fundamentally doing applied is we build this technology on the commercial side, and it's essentially subsidizes the work we do on the defense side”
Disclosure
Younis: Auto CTO bypassed procurement by shipping vehicles directly to Applied Intuition
“So in this company's position, the CTO says, hey, I'm just gonna send you two vehicles To your office, and then you're gonna, you know, put your OS on there, and you're gonna put your autonomy on there, and then I'm gonna be there in a month, and I'm gonna see…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Yudis: Applied Intuition receives no American favoritism in global commercial markets
“If our products are not good, we're not gonna survive as a company. Full stop. We got a win in that very competitive global commercial ecosystem where we get no favoritism being an American company or not.”
Disclosure
Brown: Applied Intuition repurposes Army autonomy tech for commercial agriculture and mining
“The kinds of things we develop for the Army, for example, off-road autonomy has fed back into our commercial business, so into agriculture, mining, you know, and we just started to see this kind of flywheel start to affect that, to take place.”
Disclosure
Brown: Applied Intuition defense work is split evenly between retrofits and new
“Yeah, generally it's about fifty-fifty. So the 50% of our products are related to vehicles or autonomy that's in development, and then the 50% we're focused on, you know, essentially legacy vehicles.”
Insight
Yudis: Automotive autonomy software dynamics mirror defense, construction, and mining
“And I think what we learned after we got into the business, we started the company was actually the dynamics that exist in automotive are the same that exist in defense, they exist in construction, mining, they exist in trucking, and so... And then they not on…”
Disclosure
Yudis: Applied Intuition spent $750 million building its core simulation software
“Our tooling that this is built on top of this Maritime Sin example is like, We've spent like, seven hundred and fifty million dollars of engineering costs to build.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Younis: No complex physical systems are developed without software simulation
“There are no complex systems that are being developed without simulation aircraft military systems, automotive internal combustion engines, microprocessors, simulation is everywhere.”
Insight
Younis: Modern simulation builds software products, whereas past simulation built hardware
“What's different about simulation in the past versus simulation today is simulation in the past was usually used to build hardware products, and we're using simulation to build a software product.”
Disclosure
Younis: Applied Intuition hired heavily from Microsoft Flight Simulator
“We hired so many people out of the Microsoft flight sim.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Younis: Applied Intuition aims to deploy AI on one billion machines
“Our mission is to put intelligence on a billion machines, and we think that can have a profound impact on society.”
Assertion Supported
Younis: Applied Intuition employs over 1,000 engineers across 18 offices
“Over a thousand engineers and based in Silicon Valley but we have offices globally, 18 offices.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Younis: Applied Intuition has deployed AI models on around 50 platforms
“I mean, we've deployed our models onto, like, fifty-some platforms.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brown: Applied Intuition built and deployed its Maritime Sim in five weeks
“We went from like zero, no product, to the first functioning use of the product in five weeks.”
Assertion Partly supported
Brown: Applied Intuition works with every U.S. military branch
“So we are working with Every service in, in the Department of Defense, we are actually expanding that government business internationally to U.S. Allies.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brown: Applied Intuition has 110 D.C. employees dedicated to government business
“So based here in DC, in our DC office, we have about a 110 folks purely dedicated to the government mission, but really the entire company works on government government work.”