The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Kupor: Federal workforce will shrink by 300,000 employees due to DOGE
“We've done a lot of work over the course of this year, a lot of which was catalyzed by Elon and the Doge team. As a result, we expect probably that we'll end up with somewhere around 2.1 million employees at the end of the year, so roughly about a 300,000 redu…”
Scott Kupor Oct 2, 2025 ▶ 3:42 The Person Who Runs HR For 2 Million Federal Workers
Assertion Partly supported
Cooper: 95% of Americans only access capital appreciation via public markets
“I think it's like, 95, 96% of people in the U.S., The only access they have to capital appreciation is through the public markets”
Scott Kupor Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:20 a16z Podcast | Of Policy, Capital, and the Startup Ecosystem
Assertion Supported
Cooper: Yale Endowment allocates up to 50% of assets to private markets
“Venture's probably almost 18, 20% of his assets. And then if you layer on other private assets, he probably has, you know, kind of 40 plus percent, maybe even 50% of his assets in the private markets.”
Scott Kupor Jun 14, 2019 ▶ 6:36 How to Understand and Choose a Venture Investor
Assertion Supported
Four-year linear vesting remains the standard for startup option grants
“The short answer is I'm not sure there's yet a real change in convention. I think most people are still doing the pretty straight four years.”
Scott Kupor Jun 14, 2019 ▶ 30:24 How to Raise Money from a Venture Investor
Assertion Partly supported
A 2015 Fenwick report found only 30% of late-stage deals included ratchets
“By the way, I think Fenwick and West came out with a report yesterday that it's only about 30% of the deals actually that have this ratchet in it.”
Scott Kupor Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 24:30 a16z Podcast | On Recent IPOs and Comparing Private vs. Public Valuations
Assertion Supported
Cooper: Corporate VCs participate in 15% to 20% of startup deals
“Something like 15, 20% of deals often have a corporate partner in them, so it's grown a lot over the last 10 years.”
Scott Kupor Jun 14, 2019 ▶ 18:20 How to Understand and Choose a Venture Investor
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