The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Amjad Masad: Claude 4.5 shows awareness of context limits and red-team testing
“Quad 4.5 seemed to have to become more aware of its context length. So as it gets closer to the end of the context, it starts becoming more economical with tokens. It also, it looks like its awareness when it's being red teamed or in test environment, like jum…”
Amjad Masad Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 59:03 Amjad Masad & Adam D’Angelo: How Far Are We From AGI?
Assertion Supported
Masad: AI SWE-bench scores jumped from 5% to 82% in one year
“Sweebench is the main benchmark used to test whether AI is good at software engineering tasks, and we're almost saturating that. So last year we're at like maybe five percent early 24 or less, and now we're like 82% or something like that with cloths on at 4.5…”
Amjad Masad Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 28:08 Marc Andreessen & Amjad Masad on “Good Enough” AI, AGI, and the End of Coding
Prediction Held up
Masad: Next year, users will run 5 to 10 parallel AI agents
“What we're working on with Agent Four right now is by next year, we think you're gonna be sitting instead of, in front of Replit, and you're shooting off multiple agents at a time. You're, like, planning a new feature so I want to, you know, social network on …”
Amjad Masad Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 31:51 Marc Andreessen & Amjad Masad on “Good Enough” AI, AGI, and the End of Coding
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