CIA Analysts Estimated 60% to 95% Probability Bin Laden Was in Abbottabad
Michael Morell · a16z Podcast | For Your Ears Only · Jan 2, 2019 · at 5:11
Former CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell recounts the differing confidence levels intelligence analysts provided to President Barack Obama prior to authorizing the 2011 Abbottabad raid.
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“So the lead analyst said, 95% chance he's there. And the senior most analyst said, 80% chance. And I was at 60%.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
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