Investor Reid Hoffman explains the cultural biases of Silicon Valley investors when evaluating transformative technologies like artificial intelligence on The a16z Podcast.
Insight
Hoffman: Predictive AI for drug discovery only needs 1% accuracy
“Simply doing prediction and getting that prediction right, and by the way, it doesn't have to be right a hundred percent of time, it has to be right, like, one percent of the time, because you can validate the other 99% were it right, and then finding that one…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Pure AI simulation will not solve drug discovery
“Silicon Valley will classically go, we'll put it all in simulation and that will solve it. Nope, that's not going to work.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: AI models are better diagnostic knowledge stores than humans
“And so the diagnostic capabilities, these are much better knowledge stores than any human being on the planet.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: In 10 to 20 years, doctors won't be human knowledge stores
“I actually think there will be a position for a doctor, 10 years from now, 20 years from now. It won't be as the knowledge store. It will be as a user of an, as an expert user of the knowledge store, but it's not gonna be, oh, because I went to med school for …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: AI agency and goal-setting capabilities are almost certain
“I think agency and goals is almost certain. There is a question. I think this is one of the areas where we want to have some clarity and control. That was a little bit like the kind of question of what kind of compute fabric holds it together because you can't…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: AI will be net super positive for climate change
“They obsess about the climate change stuff, because actually, in fact, if you apply intelligence at the scale and availability of electricity, you're going to help climate change. You're going to solve grids and appliances and a bunch of other stuff. And just …”