Economist and historian Mark Levinson discusses post-WWII productivity anomalies and global trade growth trends on the a16z Podcast.
Assertion Partly supported
Levinson: Reagan and Thatcher's free-market policies failed to boost productivity
“This was what was behind the political swing to the right in the late 19 seventies, early 19 eighties, when we got Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, because the more social democratic type of governments before that hadn't been able to restart productivity …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levinson: Rapid economic growth and multiplying incomes will not recur
“The golden age was actually the exceptional time. It's not normal that economies grow at a rapid pace. It's not normal that incomes double or triple or quadruple in the matter of just a few years, and I don't think we should expect that to recur.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2067
Levinson: China's growth will slow to a couple percent annually
“But China's not going to grow at 10% a year for the next Half century. It's becoming much more like a normal, mature economy in which the growth rate is a couple of percent a year, and that's all they're going to be able to expect.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levinson: Ocean shipping consolidation will raise rates and reduce competition
“There are now probably three so-called alliances of container carriers that kind of dominate world trade. So we may be in an environment in which there are few enough players that they'll be able to have a better handle on prices, on shipping rates, and that w…”
Insight
Levinson: Living standard gains stem from private sector micro-innovations, not policy
“I believe that a lot of the improvement in our living standards really comes out of these kind of micro improvements at the private sector level, rather than as a matter of great policy.”
Insight
Levinson: Tech insiders overestimate adoption speed; efficiency takes years
“Sometimes people who are involved in the tech industry kind of get very romantic about how quickly these great technologies are getting absorbed. But in reality, life is messy. And some of these technologies take a while to be used efficiently and some of them…”