Assertion Partly supported AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 2/5

Ladha: 98% of $1B+ Construction Megaprojects Run 80% Over Budget

Saurabh Ladha · a16z Podcast | Construction Under Tech -- The Build · Jan 2, 2019 · at 5:17

Saurabh Ladha, CEO of Doxel, discusses the productivity gap and severe cost overruns in large construction projects.

0:00 / 0:05exact quote · 5.6s

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“98% of construction projects above a billion dollars run on average 80% over budget.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Ninety-eight percent of construction megaprojects budgeted over $1 billion run an average of 80 percent over budget.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

The speaker accurately drew from McKinsey & Company research on $1B+ megaprojects, but conflated two distinct metrics from those studies into a single statement. McKinsey's July 2015 study reported that 98% of megaprojects experience cost overruns of more than 30%, while its May 2016 study noted that megaprojects cost an average of 80% over budget. Combining these creates a mathematically mismatched claim, as 98% represents the proportion of projects exceeding budget thresholds, whereas 80% is the overall average cost overrun across the dataset.

McKinsey July 2015 report ('The Construction Productivity Imperative') established that 98% of megaprojects valued at $1 billion or more suffer cost overruns of over 30%.
McKinsey May 2016 report ('Managing Big Projects: The Lessons of Experience') established that megaprojects cost on average 80% more than budgeted.
The claim conflates the 98% proportion of projects with overruns and the 80% mean cost overrun figure.

Checked against

[1] a16z.com [2] a16z.com [3] mckinsey.com [4] mckinsey.com [5] mckinsey.com [6] mckinsey.com [7] mckinsey.com [8] budgetoverrun.com

McKinsey capital projects 98 percent 80 percent budget Ninety eight percent of construction megaprojects budgeted over 1 billion run an average of 80 percent over budget "Saurabh Ladha" "a16z" construction megaprojects McKinsey construction megaprojects ninety eight percent eighty percent over budget

assessed as of 2026-07-28

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

Mentioned

construction projects

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