Ryan McEntush, investing partner at a16z on the American Dynamism team, outlines the core hierarchy of needs driving energy technology and industrial policy.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McIntosh: Hardware companies must reshore or vertically integrate key component supply chains
“All these things we're going to need to either reshore or vertically integrate within the companies who are building the end product.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McIntosh: Electro-industrial supply chain ownership will dictate global military and economic power
“And I think as we, you know, look forward 50, a hundred years, owning the supply chains today are going to have a lot of effects of Who controls both the sort of economic and military powers in, in the future.”
Insight
McEntush: Grid costs spike once renewables reach 50-75% penetration
“As you attach more of these sort of renewable resources or sort of these non-reliable resources, while they're incredibly cheap and works most of the time, sort of this long tail risk, you know, once you get to like, 50 to 75% of the grid is gonna become very,…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Texas deregulation drives massive wind, solar, and battery deployment
“The success of Texas and how much wind and solar and batteries they've been able to connect and why a lot of companies are flooding there is because of this policy that makes it very, very easy to connect new assets.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McIntosh: US rare earth bottleneck is scale and cost, not technology
“I think the reality is that you know, the technology that China has, America can do. We're very good at engineering. We're very good at doing specific things. And in fact, even like the, you know, recent stuff around rare earths, for example, rare earth separa…”
Opinion
McIntosh: SpaceX and Anduril vertically integrate by necessity, not strategy
“In many ways, they're vertically integrating by necessity, not strategy. There just isn't an ecosystem of companies that can scale with them.”