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Dr. Justin Larkin: Only 6% of 2021 healthcare dollars were capitated

Dr. Justin Larkin · Risk-based Contracting for Value-based Care, a Founder's Playbook · Apr 6, 2022 · at 4:04

Dr. Justin Larkin, a partner at Andreessen Horowitz, contextually frames the transition to value-based care by citing market data on healthcare payment models in 2021.

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“In 20, 21, fewer than 40% of healthcare dollars actually flowed through a payment model that had any kind of substantial value component to it. And only six percent of dollars were in sub capitation or in a global capitation arrangement.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

In 2021, fewer than 40% of US healthcare dollars flowed through payment models with a substantial value component, and only 6% were in sub-capitation or global capitation arrangements.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

According to the Health Care Payment Learning & Action Network (HCPLAN) APM Measurement Effort for calendar year 2021 spending (published in late 2022), 39.5% of overall U.S. healthcare dollars flowed through Category 3 and Category 4 Alternative Payment Models combined (models with a substantial value component), which verifies the statement that 'fewer than 40%' flowed through such models. Additionally, Category 4 population-based capitated arrangements accounted for 7.4% of total payments across all lines of business (up from ~6% in prior measurement periods), with commercial and Medicaid capitation hovering between 3% and 6%. The speaker's figures of 'fewer than 40%' and '6%' closely match HCPLAN benchmark data for 2021.

HCPLAN 2021 measurement data reported that 39.5% of U.S. healthcare dollars flowed through APM Categories 3 and 4 combined (32.6% in Cat 3 and 7.4% in Cat 4), verifying 'fewer than 40%'.
HCPLAN reported Category 4 population-based capitation at 7.4% overall for 2021 (up from ~6% previously), with commercial and Medicaid capitated arrangements in the 3% to 6% range.

Checked against

[1] a16z.com [2] hcp-lan.org [3] aafp.org [4] civhc.org [5] ca.gov [6] thoroughcare.net [7] hcp-lan.org [8] nih.gov

"HCPLAN" "2021" "6%" capitation OR "population-based" HCPLAN APM measurement report 2021 healthcare dollars value capitation "Justin Larkin" "40%" "6%" "capitation" HCPLAN 2021 APM measurement report global capitation percentage Health Care Payment Learning Action Network 2021 APM measurement report percentages

assessed as of 2026-07-28

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

Mentioned

Dr. Justin Larkin value-based care

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