Marty Chavez, Partner at Sixth Street and former Goldman Sachs CIO, discusses his PhD research at Stanford modeling Bayesian probabilistic frameworks for medical diagnosis.
“The actual problem of diagnosis in general internal medicine Is you've got about a thousand disease categories and about 10,000 various clinical findings laboratory findings or manifestations or symptoms. And the joint probability distribution that you have to calculate is therefore on the order of a thousand to the 10,000.”
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More from Marty Chavez
Opinion
Holding LLM creators liable is like holding Microsoft liable for Windows misuse
“Let's make the LLM creators liable for every bad thing that happens with an LLM. To me, that is the exact equivalent of saying, let's make Microsoft Liable for every bad thing that someone does on a Windows computer, right? They're fully general, and so these …”
Marty ChavezApr 30, 2024▶ 30:49Marty Chavez (Sixth Street): Finding a Single Source of AI Truth
Opinion
99% of Dodd-Frank was unnecessary red tape, except for CCAR rules
“That was the history of Dodd-Frank. Like, we don't really know what went wrong in the financial crisis, so let's just go regulate everything, and I think 99% of it was red tape that did not make the world a better place, and some of it Such as the CCAR regulat…”
Marty ChavezApr 30, 2024▶ 31:41Marty Chavez (Sixth Street): Finding a Single Source of AI Truth
AssertionNot checkable as stated
Goldman Sachs didn't predict the 2008 crisis, they just hedged their risk
“We didn't know that the financial crisis was coming. Of course, you know, we got in the press and elsewhere accused of all kinds of crazy things. Like they were the only ones who hedged so they must have known it was coming. We were just predictors of the pres…”
Marty ChavezApr 30, 2024▶ 14:14Marty Chavez (Sixth Street): Finding a Single Source of AI Truth
Insight
AI regulation must focus on external API boundaries, not internal model thoughts
“That's going to be an important principle for LLMs and AIs generally as they start agenting and causing change in the world. We have to care a lot about those boundaries.”
Marty ChavezApr 30, 2024▶ 20:20Marty Chavez (Sixth Street): Finding a Single Source of AI Truth
Insight
Generative AI struggles with non-stationary distributions like financial markets
“It all depends on the training set, and it also depends crucially on on a stationary distribution, right? So, you know, the reason all this works on is it a cat or not a cat Is that cats change very slowly in evolutionary time. They don't change from day to da…”
Marty ChavezApr 30, 2024▶ 23:37Marty Chavez (Sixth Street): Finding a Single Source of AI Truth
AssertionNot publicly verifiable
Goldman delivered 47 Lehman closeout claims within an hour of bankruptcy
“We had our courier show up, At Lehman's headquarters within an hour of its filing bankruptcy protection for the 47 entities, and we had 47 sheets of paper with our closeout claim against each of those entities rolled up from wide across all the businesses, and…”
Marty ChavezApr 30, 2024▶ 15:32Marty Chavez (Sixth Street): Finding a Single Source of AI Truth
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